Comments on: 2009 Year End Real Estate Market Summary and Analysis

By: Carolyn

Carolyn — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:29:44 +0000

I agree with much of what Sam states and believe the numbers and his analysis support his statements. Perhaps some do not realize that as long as short sales and foreclosures dominate a large portion of the market, short sales and foreclosures will have a bold impact on sales, including cash and conventional sales of any property, in assessing value to all condo properties.

Since any relief that property owners have seen has targeted primary residences, and the Florida condo market has seen little “relief,” our condo market will continue to see a decline in vaules as a result of more foreclosures and short sales. The second home market will continue to suffer as long as the labor market is unstable and unemployment is increasing. What that means is that for those buyers who have a cash flow, there are some great deals on Panama City Beach’s condos and will continue to be throughout 2010.

By: Peter

Peter — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 17:43:02 +0000

There are too many developers units still available and too many owners looking too bail. With banks not lending money to purchase these units and all so many cash buyers around I am afraid Sam’s report is accurate. Also to consider is the number of foreclosures is set to rise in 2010 and the number of American losing jobs continues in December (85,000).

By: Ron

Ron — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 03:19:39 +0000

History has shown Sam to be correct in his assessments over the last several years. Many of the naysayers describing his work as sloppy, unfounded and simply not realistic have disappeared from the landscape. Portfolios are not bursting at the seams as they were a short 5 years ago, causing the majority of buyers to seek financing that for the most part is simply not available to the bulk of these buyers. Retirement funds are mere shadows of their former bottom lines and health and energy costs continue to rise. This extends to foreign investors as well. And we haven’t even scratched the insurance, tax and association fee surface. As for me, I’ll continue to base my decisions on Sam and others like him that compile data and let it speak for itself. That’s what “real” real estate professionals do.

By: Gayle Blanton

Gayle Blanton — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 15:36:38 +0000

My thoughts on this report are more in line with those of Craig Duran. I’m not convinced we will see ongoing declines in prices except in the case of short sales and foreclosures. Because of the long wait to close on these units and the issue of multiple offers, I see buyers opting out of considering short sales in favor of transactions with a more predictable outcome. If this becomes a trend, prices on non-foreclosure/short sale properties could stabilize and perhaps even increase by year end.

Feeding into my optimism for sales in 2010 is the fact that as the opening date for the new airport gets nearer, I’m receiving more and more calls from new buyers interested in investing in the area – particularly those from the Nashville, TN area. My cup is half full.

By: Craig Duran

Craig Duran — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 15:05:03 +0000

In my opinion, Mr. Portman’s assessment of the market seems pretty well grounded with what I am seeing on the front lines. However, 2 things concern me. Stating that “Panama City Beach condos will lose another 5% in value” seems a little bold considering that nobody in fact knows what the future holds…especially in a market that is going to see some significant changes in the coming year. I am further concerned by the fact that we are supposed to take information that is supposed to be grounded in fact and data and rely on this as truth when it is being presented in a bit of a sloppy manner…the excel graph is labeled for the year 2013.
I will be interested to peruse http://www.condosaletrends.com to see which sales were included and which were not, as opinion of value is still just that, opinion.

By: Butch Metcalf

Butch Metcalf — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:46:19 +0000

I think you are dead on with your comments. As a Top Producing Realtor on the Beach that is what I see in the market place. It is not over yet and will take some time to recover.

By: Terry

Terry — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:14:50 +0000

Thanks for your analysis Sam, and although the news isn’t all that good, everything you said seems reasonable and likely to unfold pretty much as you predict.

I think going forward purchases are going to have to focus on the cap rate when buying a property. (ie net rent/purchase price) similar to buying a dividend yielding stock. That way, any increase in value ends up being a bonus.