Thursday, November 30, 2006
Has the market hit bottom?

In a recently release article from Reuters, it was reported that The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation had holdings as of September consisting of over 6 million shares of various home builder stocks. Centex, Beazer, and WCI were among the few of them.

If someone this big is making a move like this, are they speculating that the bottom has been hit?

This is the exact model that Buffett uses (is that surprising). Buy a promising product when it's down and prepare for the up-swing.

This goes hand-in-hand with my post on Learning to Invest. When the market is down, buy cheap, buy as much as you can, plan to hold it and prepare for the up-swing.

Click here for the article.

posted by Jason at 10:46 AM

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Kyle Dreier said...
If you subscribe to the "herd mentality" this is a great time to get out. Notice, however, that the herd isn't as rich as Warren or Bill. It is my opinion that we are in the trough and the worst is behind us. I don't expect the upswing to be as dramatic as the downturn we've experienced. I will say this ... my money is in PCB and I'm in for the long haul.
-Kyle Dreier

7:59 AM

Steve Presley said...
At this point and time we have weathered the storm , so to speak. I am invested in the Panama city Beach market and believe most investors will only see the bottom of this market in the rear view mirror. Hind site is always 20,20. Investments in real estate should always be purchased with at least a 4 year window in mind. Looking forward to the up coming years in the Panama city market as the strong basic fundamentals carry this market to new levels.

10:08 AM

Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Conservation Easement around the Airport

On Tuesday St. Joe recorded the conservation easement for 9,609 acres. This will become permanent upon commencement of construction of the new airport.

To be quite frank, I had completely forgotten about the 10,000 acre conservation easement that is to be included in the land donation by St. Joe for the new airport. This is miniscule compared to the 40,000 acres St. Joe has committed to dedicate to conservation under the West Bay Sector Plan.

The West Bay Sector Plan consists of approximately 78,000 acres and was passed by the Bay county Commission in 2003.

Click here for the News Herald article.

Click here for the St. Joe press release.

posted by Jason at 11:53 PM

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Monday, November 27, 2006
Learning to Invest

It is no secret that the local real estate market is definitely in favor of the buyer. These changes come and go, although many would argue (and much of the evidence suggests) that the most current market changes are more significant than changes of the past.

A buyer's market is called as such because there is a greater amount of "inventory" on the market than there are buyers willing to purchase. Whereas a seller's market is great for the seller and may bring quick sales and high prices, a buyer's market is great for those that are looking to purchase. Along with a buyer's market comes competitive prices and a large selection.
This is a great time to buy; those who can afford to purchase, should. The deals are not around every corner, but they are there. The Panama City area has strong growth potential and still relatively affordable investment opportunities (if you are willing to dig).

I was reading through some of the columns at Yahoo Finance and found a great article from Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad. The article can be found by clicking here.

The bottom line is, we've got the beach; and the water and sand is beautiful. People love it here.

posted by Jason at 8:45 PM

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Anonymous said...
We have the beach, water, and sand.... but so does the million of miles of other beach, water, and sandy coastlines. Take Navarre and Mary Ester as an example, they have beach and sand as white as our, along with water as blue. It is very comparable to Callaway in price and location, not really close to anything, just without the smell. As an investment in those areas are more protective because of Herbert Field and proximity to lifestyle offerings versus Callaway as Tyndall, as a whole base, has been on the chopping block. Yes, sections of Herbert Field has been but the that base houses more then one division. Now lets look at PCB compared to simply Destin; PCB has very limited shopping or even high end speciality shops compared to Destin, who has Destin Commons, Silver Sands, numerous large shopping strips, and many speciality shops. Granted we are getting Pier Park, but Simon Group is having a VERY hard time getting anchor stores to sign up and only have Eight named tenants... a far cry compared to Silver Sand alone. Moving forward, Destin has sidewalks along many of it main road, PCB just got a walkway along N. Lagoon and still nothing along Thomas or Front Beach and Back Beach Road, Ha! Other considerations, we have been known as the Red Neck Rivera for the past twenty five year, Destin is the more sophisticated retreat. PCB can't shed that stigma over night and people still refer to it as such, only now under baited breath. It's a joke to think that because we have some big condos that we simply shed that mentality and aura about the area. In reality it has only made the area worse because now we don't have Miracle Strip which did offer some draw, now we have big condos and what is the draw? Beach, sand and water, get real, wake up and smell the coffee!!! My sources state that the area pricing will brought an additional $85,000 and up to $150,000 for the condo market. We are not alone with beach, sand, and water, not at all but simply over our heads and under the water to which as only see ourselves alone and trying to comfort each other with blind hope.

7:16 AM

Anonymous said...
I'm not sure where/how to begin responding to this post.

Tyndall on the chopping block?

What was the bit about condos in PC? Made no sense.

I think this person is taking it on the chin for some risky pre-construction investments and now is taking it out on the area and the English language.

I'll check on Navarre and Mary Ester prices for you, but I doubt they compare to PCB.

10:43 AM

Anonymous said...
Let's collectively dwell on the "English language" aspect for a moment, then gently return to the "red neck riviera" portion; draw a faint "red" line between the two, and then come to rest with a thought about fatalism and self-fulfilling prophesies!!

11:01 AM

Anonymous said...
Home prices: Record drop in October -
Median price sinks 3.5 percent from a year earlier, trade group see more price declines ahead.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/28/news/economy/home sales_october/index.htm?cnn=yes

Maybe he is a foreigner who has invested here, but he/she may have something right.

1:32 PM

Jason said...
Anonymous poster number 1. I invite you to email me your "source" information on the condo market. I'd be glad to publish it here. My email address is Jason@PCBDaily.com

Thanks for reading!

12:29 AM

Kyle Dreier said...
One consistent theme that comes out of Rich Dad is 'action'. So many times people love to sit on the sidelines and talk about the game as they passively watch.

I love what Walt Disney said, "The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing."

You have to be willing to make a mistake. I've learned far more by making mistakes then by sitting back and criticizing those out there trying to make something happen.

There's a lot to be learned by watching, but the best and most poignant lessons come from actually doing.

My philosophy is that failure is doing nothing.

7:42 AM

Jim said...
and the thing is Kyle..those that bash it the most are probably the ones kicking themselves for not having the courage to take action. I will look at their comments all day long as I drive to the bank

8:45 PM

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Monday, November 20, 2006
Pier Park

Construction of Pier Park is moving forward with the completion of Target and the beginning of the new movie theatre. I took some pictures over the weekend.

Also, check out www.PierParkRetail.com for more information.

To the left is the new 16 screen theatre set to open in May.

posted by Jason at 1:42 PM

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Anonymous said...
Do you think Ron Jon would build a store across the street from the City Pier if they knew PCPD made a habit out of arresting surfers? Last time I checked Ron Jon promoted surfing! PCB City Council should reconsider that lame ordinance that prohibits surfing within 400' of the pier! Anyway, just another corporate store coming to PCB that will drive small business owners out of business!

10:16 AM

Anonymous said...
I'm a realtor here in bay county and this site is being used more than you realize to show outsiders what is happening here with us. Well done you guys. It makes my job so much easier.

5:08 PM

Anonymous said...
WOW, a Target... Panama City Beach is really moving up scale now!!! Watch out Destin we are a foot with our big bad Target.
Come on, who are you kidding! Yourself and the few realtors that are using this BS hype to sell Panama City Beach, which is 100k over priced! Simon group is having a hard time finding any real stores to go in and basically gave away a few spots to try and get in more stores. Sad sad sad... Target, wow.

4:15 PM

Anonymous said...
Not sure why everyone is bashing Pier Park and claim that they have only 8 or so parties interested. I have several friends in the construction business that tell me and show me a list of over 30 stores that have signed agreements and are just waiting for the space to come available. Also, last time i checked Destin did not pop over night and went through a real estate bust bigger than PCB in the 80's. Oh by the way if PCB is so bad then move, be happy where you live and try to support your home town.

9:26 AM

Jason said...
I have a contact at Pier Park that I just haven't had the time to talk with. I will try to get some information on how their tenancy interest is.

Last I heard, they were not having any problems attracting anchors, or for that matter, anyone else. The long term projections in this area are very strong. Trust me, a company like Simon does not go into an area without doing their homework, and they certainly don't come into an area because the market is "hot". When Simon makes a move, you can be sure that it is very precise and calculated.

12:35 AM

Kyle Dreier said...
Saying Target is coming is simply a way of saying that money is coming. It's the tip of the iceberg. I like seeing big box retailers entering a market ... that bodes well for the fundamentals. When I see Home Depot, Lowes, Target, Bone Fish Grill, Carrabbas, and a long list of others entering the PCB area I simply see $. That's good for anyone with skin in the game.

If you'd prefer to invest in a market based on emotion then think about things like reputation, stigma, etc. I watched Breckenridge, Colorado emerge from a dusty, sleeping little town in the 70's. At that time, and even today to a degree, Vail was the place to be. Maybe Destin will keep the snob factor but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty of upside opportunity in PCB.

-Kyle Dreier

8:07 AM

Monday, November 13, 2006
The Forgotten Coast and Greenbelt Laws

Florida's forgotten coast has been getting some good publicity lately. For those that don't know, the Forgotten Coast is referring to Port St. Joe. Although Port St. Joe isn't really "on-the-way" to anything, it is still thought very highly of by many vacationers. The News Herald published an article on it referencing some of the other articles that have been written about that area. I know we have some readers that work in the Port St. Joe area, let me know if you have more information on the articles written. The News Herald article can be found here.

Also, Florida's Greenbelt law is in the spotlight along with St. Joe. The recent decrease in pulp demand has resulted in a decrease in assessed value for much of their land holdings across Florida. The Greenbelt law was enacted to protect the state's agriculture farmers from receiving increasingly higher tax bills every year. This way, if property values were increasing, yet the farmer’s product yield was the same (and so is his profit), the farmer is essentially prevented from being "taxed" out of his property. The article can be found here.

Right now, however, to some people it would seem that St. Joe is abusing the "agricultural protection" of the Greenbelt law. Although to many people today, St. Joe is known as a real estate development company, it's roots stem from the paper business. The big question is: When do we start assessing the property as something other than agriculture?

Edited: One of our readers provided me with an article about St. George Island. This article can be found here.

posted by Jason at 4:24 PM

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Thursday, November 09, 2006
Real Estate is Still Selling

Despite the apparent slow-down in the real estate market in the Panhandle, people are still buying. True, there are not as many buyers here than last year or the year before, but if it is priced right, someone will want to buy it. Below is data from the Bay County MLS.

Sold in Panama City Beach summer 2004

314 homes sold from a 3/2 in Woodlawn for $105k to a 2700 sf gulf front home for $2M
603 condos sold from a studio at Top of the Gulf for $147k to a Hidden Dunes 3200 sf penthouse for$950k
Sold in Panama City Beach summer 2005

272 homes sold from a 3/2 for $175k to a 3600 sf Lake Powell-front 4 bedroom home for $1.5M
598 Condos sold from a new studio at Majectic for $139k to a 4 bedroom, 3100 sf at En Soleil for $1.7M
Sold in Panama City Beach summer 2006

158 homes sold from a 3/1 for $145k to a 7200 sf bay front home in Colony Club for $2M
313 condos sold from a $20k parking space in Calypso to a 4 bedroom penthouse in En Soleil for $1.6M
Summer is defined from May 1 to August 30.

posted by Jason at 8:24 AM

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Anonymous said...
Jason,

Interesting statistics, but why only the summer months? What about the other 8 months of the year? Given the decline in '06 numbers, would you expect '07 to follow the trend or break out? Never the less the statistics are noteworthy.

8:28 PM

Monday, November 06, 2006
Bay County Airport Construction Costs Continue to Rise

An article in the News Herald yesterday spoke into the continually rising construction costs of the new airport. The cost grew from $218M in 2000 to roughly $330M now. Increases in construction costs and inflation are to blame. In all honesty, what did we expect? As time passes, the price always goes up. Of course the price went up, the only question is how much more is it going to go up before construction can begin? A link to the article can be found here.

I stand in support of the new airport, but at what point do we throw in the towel and say this is too much money? At what point do we cross the line? There's always got to be a breaking point.

Something has to be done. We need to either get our airport up to regulation or build a new airport. Obviously modifying the existing one would be less expensive, but last time that was discussed, the environmentalists cited that harm would be done to the sea grass beds. What would cause more harm to the environment, extending the current runway, or building a new airport?

What if the airport purchased more land inland and 390 was re-routed? Would that be possible?

posted by Jason at 6:09 PM

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Anonymous said...
The new airport needs to be built.
I lived in Denver at the time the new Denver Airport was being considered. It's like deja vu all over again.
The fact is that so much is dependent on the new airport being built. It will be great for the economy and everyone stands to gain from it. It will bring higher wages and higher quality of life. Denver was in the midst of a severe recession in 1985. The building of the new airport there not only lifted the area out of recession, but it brought higher paying jobs and more of them.

The current airport is out of date and out of room. If Bay County wants to continue living in the Dark Ages, then don't build the airport. It took 20 years for them to decide where to build the new Hathaway Bridge, and they wound up putting it in exactly the same place!
Procrastination and red tape are standing in the way. Build the airport NOW!

2:21 PM