As I predicted last week, mortgage rates have managed to ease somewhat over the past week thanks to a slumping stock market that has seen a miserable start to the third quarter. Investors are beginning to think that all of those “green shoots” of economic recovery may have been so many weeds as lackluster earnings reports, a sell off in the commodities markets, and concerns that the third quarter will fail to bring the robust growth many had hoped for are all taking their toll on stocks.
The Dow and S&P 500 both ended the day Tuesday at two month lows. Bonds have benefited from all this uncertainty as investors retreat to the safety of the capital markets and mortgage rates have reaped the reward. The benchmark thirty-year fixed-rate fell below 5.50% to settle in at 5.375% on Tuesday. Remember it was only a couple of weeks ago when we were almost at 6.00%.
Fifteen year mortgage rates fell to 4.625%. There are no big economic reports due out this week and I expect mortgage rates will continue to simply respond to the ups and downs of equities and commodities on a daily basis. With no major market movers, expect rates to remain in the 5.375% range and perhaps ease if the sell-off in stock continues.
Mortgage rates eased slightly this week as the bond market was reassured by comments form Chinese officials who indicated they still had a taste for US Treasury debt and that the dollar would remain their primary foreign currency reserve. Thirty year mortgage rates settled to just below 5.50% to 5.375% as the yield on the ten year Treasury fell back to 3.5% after pushing 4% two weeks ago. Fifteen year mortgage rates were even more attractive with the no point coupon at 4.75%. With inflation in check and the stock market sputtering I don’t see any significant upward pressure on rates in the short-run. There will be several economic reports over the next week that could create some daily volatility as investors attempt to determine whether the economy is turning the corner or still stuck in a rut.
A report released on Tuesday showed that we may have finally reached the bottom of the housing market nationally. The S&P Case Shiller Index of home prices, though down 18.1% from the same month a year ago, showed only a .6% drop from March to April. This is nearly three quarters lower than the previous month’s decline of 2.2%. The Case Shiller index has shown a monthly decline for every month since July of 2006. Yale Economist and co-creator of the index, Robert Shiller, called it, ” a striking improvement in the rate of home price decline.” The good news was tempered, however, by another report that showed more prime mortgage loans became delinquent in the latest quarter and a report on consumer confidence showed a surprise dip. It will be interesting to see in this week’s report from the National Association of Realtors on pending home sales whether more evidence of a housing recovery can be seen.
Mortgage rates have eased slightly after their steep run up over the past three weeks. Thirty year mortgage rates now stand at 5.625% after peaking at 5.75%. Rates could have been pressured above 6% had it not been for the stalled rally on Wall Street that has seen stock prices fall modestly over the past couple of weeks. Investors are beginning to question whether the economy will pull out of the recession as soon as once thought.
Mortgage rates have eased somewhat this week as weakness in the stock market has translated into higher demand for bonds. Stocks have been hit by a renewed sense of uncertainty as investors wonder if the rally over the last several months has gotten ahead of the economic realities. A stock’s loss is a bond’s gain and the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate now stands at 5.50%. Fifteen year fixed rates are just below 5% at 4.875%. The jumbo market continues to be nearly non-existent with thirty year rates for loans over $417,000 back over 7% with no relief in sight.
More signs the housing market is stabilizing could be found in a report released by the Census Bureau that showed housing starts jumped 17.2% in May to an annualized pace of 532,000 after a revised estimate of 454,000 in April. The data also revealed that new building permits rose by 4% in May. Other news, on the economy as a whole, showed inflation at the wholesale level remains in check with the Producer Price Index rising by a modest .2% last month. Economists had expected a rise of three times that at .6%. Year over year, wholesale prices have fallen by 5% – the largest annual rate of price decline since 1949.
There is a lot of talk in the media about the fact that financing for real estate is so difficult to obtain these days and it is true that underwriting and credit standards have tightened significantly. Yet most of the difficulties lie in the second home, investor and condo markets. For primary residence purchasers buying single family detached homes, however, times could not be better. Low rates are still with us ( yes 5.50% is low) there is an $8,000 first –time buyer tax credit, home prices are their lowest in years and mortgage programs abound. FHA , Rural Development and VA loans are still extremely attractive options with relaxed down payment, credit, and debt ratio requirements and offer repeat and first-time buyers alike an opportunity to take advantage of the amazing deals to be found right now. I would be happy to explain these programs in detail with anyone interested.
Mortgage rates rose another .25% over the last week and now stand at 5.75% for thirty-year fixed with no points. We are seeing some steadying, however, as the bond market appears to have stabilized and stocks have been flat for the last few days. With no large government bond auctions this week we should not see any further rate deterioration and rates could possibly ease slightly.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has expressed frustration with the rising rates insisting that low rates are critical to a sustained recovery in the housing market. To that end, he and the Fed stand prepared to purchase billions more in mortgage-backed securities to drive rates lower if necessary.
On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported last Friday that new claims for jobless benefits fell in May by a much larger than expected amount though the overall unemployment rate rose to 9.4% – its highest level in twenty six years. While on the surface it may appear that losing 450,000 jobs in one month is a bad thing it indicates a marked drop in the rate of job losses and further evidence the economy is stabilizing.
On Tuesday, however, the government reported that wholesale inventories shrank to $405 billion, the lowest level since September, suggesting companies were adjusting inventories downward to offset further anticipated declines in sales.
One last note I reported on two weeks ago, HUD has now issued its final rule on utilization of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit in conjunction with FHA insured mortgages. After first indicating they would allow for those funds to be used for repayment of a bridge loan to cover down payment and closing costs, HUD now has backed away from that plan fearing it carried many of the same risks as the now defunct homebuyer’s assistance programs.
HUD ruled that while the tax credit funds may be borrowed against for such things as closing costs, pre-paids and rate buy-downs, the borrower must still bring 3.5% of his or her own funds to the closing table. This is a hugely significant decision as the major hurdle most FHA borrowers and, indeed, most first-time homebuyers is lack of down payment. Many saw the use of the tax credit for down payment as a way of bringing an untapped segment of the population into the housing market and thus stabilizing the sector and overall economy.
What a difference a week makes! Last Wednesday I reported that the days of long-term mortgage rates under 5% were likely at an end. Seven days later we find the thirty-year fixed rate for conforming mortgages near 5.50%. A series of government Treasury auctions last week were met with little enthusiasm as investors are demanding a higher return than these bonds can deliver. The continued strength in the stock market, which saw one of its best months in recent memory in May, has also drawn investors away from bonds putting downward pressure on prices and increasing bond yields significantly. As of Tuesday, the yield on the ten year Treasury note stood at 3.64%
There is good news to on the housing front to report. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose a whopping 6.7% in April after a surprise jump of 3.2% in March. This shattered consensus expectations of a rise of only .5%. Also on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported a surprise jump in construction spending in April. Commerce said spending rose .8% in April, the biggest increase since August. Analysts were anticipating a 1.3% decline. Most significantly, spending on residential construction rose .7% providing further indication that the housing market is attempting to recover. Another report from the Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in April – its highest reading since September. This news helped offset a report that showed consumer spending slipped .1% in April after falling .3% in March. All combined, the silver linings seen in reports on the health of the economy continue to lead many analysts to believe the severity for the recession is easing and that a recover will likely begin in the third quarter of this year.
My observations on the local real estate market tend to show the majority of purchasers we are currently seeing in the market are a mix of out of state second-home buyers taking advantage of the incredible deals and first-time homebuyers jumping off the fence sensing that prices will not go lower and seeing rates begin to rise. I am also seeing some locals taking advantage of the market conditions to downsize or make a change from single-family to condominium living. All in all, I see a good mix of buyers right now and plenty of financing options to fit their needs. We are returning to a normal market void of speculators and flippers which should lay the groundwork for long-term recovery and sustainability.
We are beginning to see a bit more volatility with rates as compared to the past several months as the stock market continues to post gains despite continued economic uncertainty. Rates have been held down by the Federal Reserve’s program of buying up mortgage-backed securities and the minutes from their last meeting released last week revealed they are considering purchasing an additional $750 billion for a grand total of $1.5 trillion. This news helped thirty-year mortgage rates remain barely below 5% despite a broad sell-off in the bond market that saw the yield on the ten year Treasury note rise to 3.43% – its highest level in months.
On Tuesday, a dismal housing report showing home prices decline some 19% year over year in the first quarter was outweighed by a report showing consumer confidence jumped by its biggest amount in six years to its highest levels in eight months reigniting the rally in the stock market. On Wednesday, the Mortgage Banker’s Association of America reported that applications dropped 14% last week as the highest interest rates in two months have sharply curtailed refinances.
If the current exuberance in the equity markets continues to put downward pressure on bond prices, we may see the last of sub 5% mortgage rates. Investors are looking for higher returns and seem to believe increasingly of late that the end of the recession will be sooner rather than later. Still, I do not expect mortgage rates to spike dramatically but, rather, slowly rise as risk aversion diminishes in the markets. Look for rates to stay around 5% for the next month or so with increased day to day volatility.
Thirty year mortgage rates have been attempting to push through the 5% ceiling over the past few days as continued gains in the stock market have beaten up on bond prices. Jumbo rates remain frustratingly in the 6.875% range stifling any potential recovery in the high-end home sector. Government loan rates for thirty-year mortgages are now all in line with conventional rates hanging right around 5% for the past several weeks for VA, FHA and Rural Development. High-rise condo financing remains extremely difficult to obtain here in Florida though some local banks are offering in-house portfolio ARMs such as my 5/1 and 3/1 to try and help second-home buyers take advantage of the incredible deals out there right now.
We’ve had some more mixed news on the housing front as builder confidence sank to an eight-month low while the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index showed an increase in home affordability in the first quarter to 72.5% making it the best time in two decades to buy a home. Housing starts for April fell 12.8% but, upon closer inspection of the numbers, most of that decline was in apartment and condominium construction while single family home starts actually ticked up slightly for the month.
Dancing on the animated floor projection, Governor Charlie Crist made an appearance at the Panama City Beach’s Chamber of Commerce last Tuesday to attend a “round-table” meeting with 10 of the leaders of the Panama City Beach community. Among many topics, the dynamics involved with education funding, offshore drilling, and the new Panama City-Bay County Airport were discussed.
A restricted schedule kept the questions to a minimum, but 5 were able to address the Governor including Anthony DuBose on the lending industry, Al McCambry on private vs public education funding, Dan Rowe on offshore drilling, Tom Morgan about the new airport, and Gary Walsingham regarding college funding. The answers varied and actually resulted in around 50 minutes of video footage.
Starting off discussing the housing market, Governor Crist talked about the current 10% annual cap on property taxes for 2nd homes and businesses and the possiblity of that being cut in half, should the people of Florida vote on it on the November 2010 ballot. The Florida legislature just passed this to be on the ballot. In addition, there will also be a 25% reduction in property taxes to first-time homebuyers.
Governor Crist also commented on state-wide education in that when he first came into office, Education Weekly ranked Florida education 31st out of 50 in the United States. Last year, the state of Florida was ranked 14th and this year Florida ranked 10, marking a clear improvement, Crist said. The Governor humbly credited his predecessor Gov Jeb Bush for setting in play most of what led to the increase in quality education in Florida.
Regarding offshore drilling, Governor Crist voiced his opinion in support of drilling citing that if “it’s safe enough, far enough and clean enough,” then he thinks we should do it. He discussed a new technology that was presented to him three weeks ago that placed a mushroom-shaped dome on the ocean floor that housed all the oil extraction equipment so that no surface equipment would be needed any longer. He said that this could be the future of drilling and could lead to less environmental risk. “I believe the founders of our country signed the Declaration of Independence, not the Declaration of Dependence,” said Crist, describing how we need to alleviate our dependence on foreign oil.
Governor Crist commented on the airport saying that the timing couldn’t be better to help push this part of Florida into prosperous economic times. Enterprise Florida, a new initiative to grow industry in the State of Florida has the potential to spread its influence further into the Bay County area, and Crist said that is largely due to the economic opportunities the new airport will make possible. There lies huge opportunity in the aerospace, bio-engineering, cargo, and more. Crist, excited about the opportunity, “This is so much the right thing to do.”
Crist also cited that there was an increase in education funding to the tune of $2.1 billion which will lead to about $43 million in increased funding for community colleges and $100 million in increased funding for university-level colleges.
In attendance:
Beth Oltman, President/CEO of the Panama City Beach Chamber
Anthony DuBose, President of Coastal community Insurance and PCB Chamber
Mayor Gayle Oberst of Panama City Beach
Philip Griffitts Jr., Owner of Sugar Sands Inn and Suites
Paul Wohlford, VP Sales and Marketing of the Resort Collection of Panama City Beach
Marty McDaniel, President of Oaseas Resorts, Chairman of the Bay County TDC
Dan Rowe, President of the Panama City Beach Convention and Visitors Bureau
Jessica Pfefferkorn, Commanding Officer, Naval Support Activity Panama City
Robert Carroll, Vice President, McNeil Carroll Engineering
Al McCambry, General Manager of Knology
Karen Blackerby, Vice President of Magnum Capital
Jack Bishop, Restaurant Owner
Steve Counts, President of Counts Real Estate Group
Gary Walsingham, CEO Walsingham Investment/Ripley’s Beleive It or Not
Elizabeth Walters, Attorney/Partner of Burke Blue Hutchison Walters & Smith
More good news on the housing front this week as reports on new and existing home sales both beat analysts’ expectations and showed signs of a bottoming despite a monthly decline for March. Possibly the best news this week was Wednesday’s report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency that showed home prices actually edged up .7% from January to February for single family residences.
These encouraging housing reports coupled with some better than expected corporate profit reports have reignited the stalled rally on Wall Street sending stocks higher for the week. The gains for stocks, however, came at the expense of the bond market with the ten-year Treasury note getting pounded sending the yield to right at 3% in Friday trading.
Mortgage rates, while slightly higher, have managed to resist the rise in bond yields thanks to the Fed’s ongoing program of purchasing up to $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Rates remain near record lows, and we are even beginning to see some relief in the Jumbo market where rates have remained stubbornly close to 7% for thirty-year fixed.
I have some interesting anecdotal news this week as well. I actually had two bidding wars break out this week over a condo and a single family home I was trying to finance – something I haven’t seen since before the crash. This further convinces me that this market has bottomed and is on its way back up. I am seeing more appraisals make value and, better yet, come in above sales price, which is another sign of a resurgent market.
The challenge remains the strict underwriting standards and shortage of loan programs that have choked off what would otherwise be a flood of business. I am closing primarily condos but, for every ten applications I take, three may go beyond the pre-approval stage and actually close due to the limited financing options available. Yet as more and more of these deals get closed, and as more buyers rush to snap up the bargains before rates begin to rise, the crippling “distressed market” designation should eventually be lifted for Florida real estate. This is crucial to providing our potential customers the same access to the mortgage programs and less-stringent underwriting guidelines enjoyed in our neighboring states.
As I predicted last week, mortgage rates have managed to ease somewhat over the past week thanks to a slumping stock market that has seen a miserable start to the third quarter. Investors are beginning to think that all of those “green shoots” of economic recovery may have been so many weeds as lackluster earnings reports, a sell off in the commodities markets, and concerns that the third quarter will fail to bring the robust growth many had hoped for are all taking their toll on stocks.
PCBDaily 