Mortgage rates remain at near eight month lows as strong demand in the bond market drove the yield on the ten year Treasury note below 3.20% before rising slightly to 3.25% today on a renewed rally in stocks. The rate on the benchmark thirty-year is hovering right at 5% with no points and the fifteen-year stands at 4.375. Thirty-year rates actually were pushing 6% back in the spring so this is quite an improvement and rather unexpected. The general consensus has been that as the economy pulls out of recession and as signs of economic growth become more evident, rates would rise as inflationary pressures mounted, but this has not materialized.
Category: Real Estate Market
Save Money on Homeowners Insurance – Q&A
Lucky for me real life gives me my subject matter every week and this week I have some great information about a friend on Facebook, and he had a GREAT article with FAQ on Wind Mitigation – so I get to borrow it for you. WE Floridians are blessed with incredible beaches, endless coastline and some pretty fabulous weather but along with that comes our exposure to tropical weather that can bring on those ill fated hurricanes. Because of this we tend to have some hefty insurance cost but now there are some things that you can do to mitigate that with the help of your FAVORITE home inspector.
Receivership and Why it isn't that Scary
WOW what a week for Real Estate for me with so many great things to write about. I could not decide if I needed to write an article or get some extensive therapy or maybe change jobs. Just when we thought we had this condo thing almost figured out we get thrown another Real Estate curve ball. Receivership has been a word that keeps cropping up in Real estate circles with many more questions than answers, so I thought I would get the scoop by reading and calling different groups whose complexes are already in Receivership.
First of all quite simply: Receivership happens for many reasons but for our purposes in really easy layman terms I will share what little I know. If a developer owns a property and is no longer able to pay, the developer oftentimes will sign over ownership, and in other cases the Receiver comes in and manages the complex and the developer retains ownership. Now keep it mind this is quite simplified, but the thing that potential condo buyers want to know is how does it impact them and is it always a bad thing????
I have had many questions about what this means for my potential buyers. This is an impossible question to answer with a blanket statement because it depends on the overall stability of the complex. The fear that many buyers have when looking to make a purchase is the ability of the HOA to fund itself and what happens when owners do not pay. Does the complex go down the tubes? Or better yet are the few owners that ARE paying stuck with a huge assessment? While these are valid concerns that is not always the case so it is best to check out each complex and see also if the bank is willing to fund them. In spite of the horror stories out there, many banks will loan money on a complex that is in Receivership so it is not an automatic death sentence for the condo. Do your homework before you cross a troubled condo off your list. Have confidence that is in the banks best interest that the complex remains stable. The new standards are very stringent and are designed to keep us from going down the same dark road again.
The other fears that buyers have when they find out a condo is in Receivership is the prospect of the remaining condos going to auction further driving the prices down. While that may happen the fact remains that until things sell then nothing is going to recover. The best thing to know about values in a complex is that they are a moving target. If you are buying in today’s market you are getting a DEAL. If all was perfect and the complex was completely solid then we would not be talking and you would be buying at yesterdays prices. Prices may jump around for a few more years but now is still a great time to get the most bang for your buck.
So this big bad thing called Receivership may not be the awful foe that is painted out to be. Please check with your bank and get their take on it and by all means check out the solvency of the Home Owners Association and you many just find out that you can get a really great deal. If you are a condo buyer, chances are you realize that you need to plan on enjoying it for many years to come and build the memories with your friends and family that no recession or threat of one can take away. There are many people (especially the news) that at times will paint an awful picture when that may not be the case. I assure you sitting on your beach front balcony may enhance your life and make you think about what really is important and you will find that they are all sitting on the balcony with you. Once again, thanks for the therapy and I think challenges and all. . . I will keep my job!!!! Besides I get to work a and live on the beach, what a country!!!!
Mixed Signals in Housing Data
Another mixed bag of housing data was released over the past week starting with last Thursday’s report from the National Association of Realtors that showed an unexpectedly drop in existing home sales. NAR reported that sales of existing homes in August fell by 2.7% form the prior month. This broke a four month trend of consecutive increases but still reflected a 3.4% increase form the same month a year ago. The report caught many economists off guard as extremely low interest rates, low prices and the government’s $8,000 tax credit were expected by most to boost sales for the month.
The Commerce Department reported on Friday that new home sales rose in August but only by a modest .7%. Even more disappointing is the fact that August new home sales were off 3.4% from a year earlier. Still, the slight increase for the month marked the fifth consecutive month of increases in the number of new homes sold. Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research, Inc. said, “Price cuts and dramatic cutbacks in home construction are clearing out inventory in a big way.” “We now have the fewest number of new homes for sale since November of 1992,” he added.
Mortgage rates are still at eight month lows with the benchmark thirty-year fixed-rate flirting with 5.00%. Government rates, which usually lag behind conventional rates, are beginning to follow the downward trend with most FHA, VA and Rural Development thirty-year programs at or below 5.25%. Jumbo rates, rates for loans in excess of $417,000, are still in the high 6% range as that market remains highly illiiquid. I have been saying for some time that the run-up we have seen in the stock market this year has been irrational as concete evidence of an economic rebound has so far been lacking. The bond market, at least, agrees with me as demand for the safety of bonds remains high keeping interest rates low.
Rates Lower – Single Family Starts Fall
We have had some good news on the housing front over the past week as the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence rose in September for the third consecutive month to its highest level since May of 2008. The Census Bureau also released a report on August home starts that showed builders broke ground on 598,000 new homes, up 1.5% from July.
The good news was tempered, however, by a surprising drop in the number of single family home starts. While overall starts were up, thanks to a resurgence in multi-family property starts, single-family starts actually fell 3% in August. Some analysts suggested the drop in single-family home starts could simply be an anomaly and point to the overall report as yet another sign that the housing market has bottomed.
Mortgage rates have continued to defy the rally in the stock market with the benchmark conforming thirty-year, fixed-rate settling in at 5.125% with no points. The fifteen year fixed also improved to just under 4.50% as the bond market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will keep rates low for the foreseeable future. Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has helped reaffirm this belief by stating that while the economy may be approaching the end of the recession the overall economy, and particularly job growth, are likely to remain weak for some time. With the apparent lack of any inflationary pressures on the horizon, the Fed is determined to keep monetary policy very accommodating to insure the economy does not slip back into recession. Over the short-run, I expect mortgage rates to remain in their current narrow range and could ease even further.
One late report out this week from the IRS said that, so far, 1.4 million first-time homebuyers have taken advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. The credit is due to expire on November 30th though there are already some calls from Congress that it should be extended. I’ll keep you posted.
August 2009 Panama City Beach Condo Market Update
During the last 12 months we have seen a meltdown of the financial markets, the stock market tanked, and the housing market continued a steep decline. The Feds invested a significant amount of money to stop the free fall. The question on everyone’s mind is “have we begun to crawl out of the hole”.
The answer to that question depends on your perspective. From a national standpoint, large banks have begun to stabilize but smaller regional banks continue to be at risk due to their exposure to the mortgage backed securities in their portfolio. The stock market has regained approximately 50% of its’ loses. The overall national housing market appears to be stabilizing. However, we are more concerned about the Panama City Beach condo market than the national indicators.
First, the good news. The following chart indicates that the number of sales of condo units from the 70 buildings in our data base is up 7% during the first eight months of 2009 when compared to the same period last year. That is a positive sign. Before we extrapolate that increase for the entire year, we need to look at the history. For the first eight months in 2008, the number of sales was slightly ahead of the number of sales in 2007. However, for the entire year there were 3% fewer sales in 2008 than 2007. Statistically speaking, we will have to wait and see if the number of sales for 2009 will be substantially different than the past three years.
The graph below illustrates the number of monthly re-sales from the 70 Panama City Beach condo buildings in our database. The 2009 monthly re-sales through August appear to be trending somewhat higher than the past three years.
The number of bank related sales, foreclosures and short sales, continues to put downward pressure on current market values. Bank related sales accounted for an average of 43% of all sales within our data base during the first six months of 2009. 42% of the July sales were bank related. There does not appear to be any moderating to the number of bank related sales during the short term.
The market trend line is illustrated below. It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date. The starting date used was May 1, 2008 so we could show the price trend for the preceding 16 months. We chose units from a variety of buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant. The units used in the analysis were:
- Boardwalk Beach; Opened in 2005; 1,380 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Calypso; Opened in 2006; 1,226 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Celadon; Opened in 2004; 846 SF; 1BR/2Ba
- Grandview; Opened in 2005; 1,492 SF; 3BR/2Ba
- Gulf Crest; Opened in 2003; 1,388 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Emerald Isle; Opened in 2005; 1,146 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Treasure Island; Opened in 2005; 1,370 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- The Summit; Opened in 1983; 912 SF; 1BR/1.5Ba
- Regency Towers; Opened in 1975; 1,114 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Sterling Reef; Opened in 2005; 1,076 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Splash: Opened in 2006; 1,074 SF; 2BR/2Ba
- Seychelles; Opened in 2006; 883SF; 1BR/2Ba
The May 1, 2008 market value for each type of unit was determined by analyzing sales data from January 1, 2008 to June 1, 2008. The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of May 1, 2008. In other words, a unit type with a May 1, 2008 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%. An October 2008, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the May 1, 2008 sale price. The sale prices and sale dates were charted with a price trend line for each type of unit. The chart contained in the price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 12 buildings. Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low (mold problems for example) were not included. There were 153 sales used in the chart. The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction. The data is just the data.
The data indicates that the current market values of Panama City Beach condos have declined approximately 16% over the past 12 months. The rate of decline is similar to the 15% decline from August 1, 2007 to August 1, 2008. The trend line shows a moderating of the rate of decline over the past four months. This is a positive sign, however over the past three years the steepest rate of decline was in the September to February months.
There are several factors at play that will continue to put downward pressure on current market values.
- During the market run up the vast majority of buyers were speculators lured by the prospect of easy money. These buyers are no longer in the market. Current buyers are those that actually want a beachside condo in Panama City Beach. Fewer buyers coupled with a supply that far outpaces demand will tend to drive prices downward over the next couple of years.
- Financing a condo continues to be extremely difficult for the average buyer. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac designated most area condo buildings as “condo-tells”. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not buy mortgages backed by “condo-tells”. Financially qualifying for a loan has become much more strenuous. The difficulty financing a Panama City Beach condo means fewer buyers. Fewer buyers mean decreased demand while the supply remains high. The difficulty in financing will put downward pressure on current market values.
- There are still a very large number of owners who have a mortgage in excess of $100,000 more than the current market value of their condo. Bank related short sales now outnumber foreclosure sales. A Short Sale is the sale of a condo in which the proceeds from the sale are short of the balance owed on the condo. Typically, banks do not record their intention of accepting a short sale. Public records may indicate a moderating in the rate of foreclosures while the number of foreclosure and short sales combined is not declining. There is no evidence that the number of foreclosure and short sales will decline in the near term. Forty percent of the sales within our data base over the past seven months have been foreclosure or short sale bank related sales. Bank related sales do not appear to be moderating and will continue to have a negative effect on sale prices over at least the short term.
- The supply of developer owned units that have not been sold far exceeds the demand. The following chart shows the number of unsold developer units from ten high profile beach side buildings as of 7/24/2009 according to Bay County Assessor and Clerk & Recorder records. There is some anecdotal evidence that Aqua has several contracts that have not closed. There are over 1,000 unsold developer units that will need to be transferred to private ownership at some point. These 1,000 units don’t include the 1,500 plus unsold units at off-beach buildings such as Laketown Wharf. These unsold developer units inflate the supply of available condos and will continue to put downward pressure on current market values.
All indications are that there is more pain ahead for the local market. How far do we have to go before the bottom? It is not unreasonable to assume that sale prices will decline another 10% or more over the next 12 months and that may not be the bottom.
As always, if you lie to yourself about things concerning money, you lose.
Check out our new Panama City Beach Condo Market blog at the web address www.condosaletrends.com/blog.
– Sam Portman
Contingencies, Love 'em or Hate 'em
All you sweet Beach show followers know that ALL of my articles come from Real life problems or challenges that happen during my week; I conduct a therapy session by bringing them before you. So thanks for listening. So many things have already come up this week with 2 short sales buyer back outs after 5 months, one going into foreclosure and lending and appraisal issues. . . where do we start? Although all that needs some reflection I had another issue that came up this week and I think many people are not aware of how some of the contingency issues work in Florida. So lets talk a little about common Purchase Contract Contingencies that a buyer may utilize.
I have a sell going on and we are waiting on an appraisal and holding our breaths to make sure it flies and the question was. . . What if it does not appraise? Does the buyer have to buy it? For the most part the answer is NO. Unless the buyer states that the offer is cash and does not put an appraisal contingency in the contract, then failure of property to appraise is an acceptable back out of a contract. The bank will require an appraisal by a third party that has no interest in the sale to determine the property value. There was a time in the distant past that a buyer would just come to the table with some extra cash to buy that dream hacienda. Not saying that NEVER happens but do not count on it. Many cash offers today include an appraisal clause in the contract.
Another common contingency is the inspection period which varies from state to state and can be explicitly stated in the contract. If the sale is an AS IS with right to inspect then the buyer can get an inspection and at his sole discretion get out of the contract if he does not like the findings of the inspection. If a buyer has a regular contact such as FAR 9 then the seller is required to fix any warranted or safety items. The seller and the buyer will discuss and come to terms with how that is handled. But for clarification sake it is the duty of the seller to have those items fixed by a licensed professional and may be required to have a re-inspection before close.
Federal law also gives a buyer 10 days to inspect for lead paint. Don’t run for the hills this will only apply to older homes but again ask your trusted Realtor. We will talk about Chinese Dry Wall another time!!!
Lender approval is another facet of contingencies embedded in the contract unless waved, and even though a customer has a pre-approval letter that does not mean that he has the loan locked in. Any number of things can happen and sometimes do so if a buyer can not attain a loan he has a suitable back out of a contract. A perfect example as happened in one of my deals today was a buyer who lost their job before the property went to close. She now no longer qualifies for her loan so was able to legitimately get out of her contract and have her earnest money returned.
I have heard in the past contingencies called weasel clauses because they allowed a person to weasel out of a contract. That does sound kind of slimy but the fact is contingencies are a necessary part of the Real Estate transaction, and your Realtor can explain all of these to you. Remember I am not a lawyer and I do not even play one on TV so this is meant to be a basic intro to contingencies as they relate to a typical sale in Florida. Thanks for being my therapist one more time.
4 Reasons Why Listing Your Home with a Realtor Works
I love my job and I think that is in part because of all the great people I get to work with. Active working Realtors are some of the hardest working most energetic people I have ever met. They love to share their knowledge of Real Estate with their customers and thankfully with each other. I enjoy working with my other Realtor buddies and so respect what they do so I wanted you to know what your Realtor can do for you.
Many people try to sell their homes themselves and that is certainly an option that all of us have, however when doing so you miss a valuable selling tool. According to the National Association of Realtors more than half of all home sales involve a listing agent and a buyers agent. The majority of those sales are made possible because of the all powerful MLS system that is blasted out to countless Realtors and people and reaches many web sites and locations across the United States. To add to that, many Realtors are a part of advertising campaigns through magazines and sites such and Homes and Land further putting your listing in front of even more people. Statistics show that nine out of 10 people use a real estate agent in their search for a home and adding to that, internet has risen as a mega tool from only 2% of buyers in 1995 to 79% in 2006 so you can imagine what the stats say now.
The MLS system is great but would be lacking without all the buzz that Realtors create when we are out and about sharing with each other. Realtors are really my best customers. One of my favorite sales happened when I was NOT WORKING. I went to Carrabbas and saw one of my favorite Realtors (you know who you are) waiting tables and I just happened to mention that I had a great listing with exceptional rental dollars generated. Ward had just the right buyer in mind!!! Needless to say that was an unexpected treat but that happens all the time. Listing with a Realtor is like the gift that keeps on giving. When you employ a Realtor to market your property you can get a lot of bang for your buck.
One of the most pertinent tangible things that your Realtor will do when listing your home is to give you up-to-date information on what is happening in your market and the price, financing and condition of competing homes. You need this information so you can sell your house at the best price and as quickly as possible. Your Realtor has vast knowledge of market values in your community and that is vital today in selling your home. Remember it does not matter what something is listed for what matters is what it is selling for.
Advertising your property is more than throwing a sign up and your Realtor will know how and where to advertise your property. There a is a misconception that you just have to advertise and that sells the Real Estate. The National Association of Realtors indicate that 82% of real estate sales are the result of agent contacts through previous clients, referrals, friends, family and personal contacts.
Your Realtor has spent years of training and learning how to market and sell what may be your biggest investment ever. There is so much more to Real Estate than making a sale; there are procedures for closing the deal that your Realtor will know how to guide you through. Zig Ziglar always said you have to close the deal to be a salesman, so with that in mind call your favorite Realtor and close that deal. Thanks to all my sweet Realtor friends out there for all your knowledge and guidance. . . you really are some of the best customers ever. And again, you know who you are!
Record Pace for Contracts on New Homes
The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that its index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in July from June marking the sixth consecutive month of increases. Though not quite as high as the 3.6% increase reported in June, July’s increase marks the first time the index has posted six months of increases since NAR began tracking pending home sales in 2001. Economists generally expected a July increase of only 1.5%. NAR Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, said in a written statement that “momentum in the housing market has clearly turned for the better.” “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country,” Yun said. “Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time homebuyer tax credit.”
Mortgage rates have managed to ease slightly as bond prices have risen over the past few days as the Dow has shed over 200 points in the past two days in a sign that investors may finally be pulling back from what many have seen as a premature rally over the past six months. Thirty-year, fixed-rates fell to 5.25%, approaching a six month low and fifteen year rates hovered near 4.50%. We have yet to see any drop in jumbo rates which have remained above 7% for some time with little hope of relief in the foreseeable future as the secondary market for jumbos is nearly non-existent. Look for rates to remain in their current range with the possibility of further easing not our of the question over the coming week.
Home Prices Post GAIN
We have received more good news on the housing market this past week beginning with Last Friday’s report from the National Association of Realtors’ report on July existing home sales which showed a jump of 7.2% over June and up 5% from July of 2008. It was the biggest month-over-month increase in existing home sales since NAR began tracking the statistic in 1999.
On Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices increased 2.9% in the three months ending June 30th. This was the first quarter-over-quarter increase in three years providing further evidence that the housing market has since bottomed and is on the road to recovery. Late breaking news on new home sales came in this morning which showed a jump of 9.6% in July, the highest level since September 2008.
Mortgage rates have stayed in a range over the past week with only mild daily fluctuations in contrast to the increased volatility we had seen in the week prior. The Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac conforming fixed-rate for single-family purchases stands at 5.375% with no points and the fifteen year stands at 4.625%. Rates have been helped by tame inflation reports and a well received government bond auction last week.
Rates have even managed to brush off a better than expected 4.9% increase in durable goods orders reported today with bonds actually a hair higher after the report. I expect rates will remain in their current range over the next week as they have for the past month or so. In the longer term, we will have to see if there are further signs of an improving economy and, if so, will those signs be strong enough to bring some inflationary fears back into the market. So far all indications are that though we are in the beginnings of a recovery, it will be very slow and take some time to fully rebound.
PCBDaily 