As of the 4:00 pm CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the center of Ike is about 400 miles ESE of Galveston, Texas. The center is expected to reach the upper-Texas coast by late Friday. Coastal storm surge of more than 20 feet is expected near and to east of where the center makes landfall. In addition, as much as 15 inches of rain is forecasted for some areas.
Hopefully, all people in the area are securing their property and evacuating. Galveston, the site of the U.S.’s worst Hurricane death toll, is especially vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion. It is a beautiful coastal town which some are betting will become the “Long Island of Texas”. The downtown area has many old Victorian homes and buildings that have stood the test of time.
The coast of Galveston is very similiar to the Atlantic coast of Florida. The houses sit far back from the water at a higher elevation from the beach. This creates a serious problem where the earth under houses erode quite significantly. To help the problem, many use a product called a Geo-Tube, which is a essentially a very long, and very tall, sand bag. The Geo-Tube is buried in the ground to protect from washout.
In the local area, the Gulf appears to be calming somewhat as we approach low tide. It will be a few days before things get back to normal. Hopefully, when the water recedes back to its normal level, our beach will build back easily. Only time will tell.
With Ike in the Gulf, our seas are very rough. Offshore, swells are exceeding 25 feet with seas 8 to 12 feet in shore. Seas aren’t expected to come down until Sunday.
I was at Treasure Island Condominiums earlier and there is no beach between the building and the water. The surf is crashing up against the building and lapping at the pilings of beach homes. After Gustov, we had a little erosion, but we were told at the TDC meeting Tuesday that it would build back naturally. We’ll see after this system moves through. The dock by my house was almost completely covered and boats at a local marina are looking a little high.
Stay tuned to pcbdaily.com for all updates for Hurricane Ike.
I don’t know what these two were thinking. I saw them enter the water near the Rick Seltzer Park. They tried very hard to make it out, but couldn’t even get past the first breaking surf line. It didn’t take much time at all and they were already out of the water. It looked like they had enough and were calling it a day.
See, even locals can make some bad judgments at times. Well, who could blame them.
Do you know it is only a single red flag day?
Other pictures:
Anyone from the area who has some interesting pics, send them to me at cdurta@att.net. I would like to get some from the other areas around the county.
Well, it is 6 a.m., which is right about high tide. I am awakened to the roar of the waves and can tell without even looking that the situation has changed significantly overnight. It is still a bit dark, but from what I can see the water is covering most of the beach and moving fast. It appears that some has even come passed our fence line and into our “yard”. The surf is very rough. The buoy south of Panama City that I reported as recording 10 feet wave heights yesterday, is now showing over 24 feet.
The 4 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricance Center read in part,
AT 400 AM CDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES…995 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES…460 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE…AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES…410 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 946 MB…27.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
As Ike makes his way across the Gulf, the coastal waters off Panama City Beach are already starting to swell. Surf conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate throughout the day today and into tomorrow. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue advisories to coastal and marine interests.
Satellite Image of Ike This Morning
As of the 11a.m. EDT advisory, Ike was a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 90mph with higher gusts. Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out up to 205 miles. A gradual increase in strength is expected as Ike moves over the loop current and other warm eddies. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Ike to become a category 3 storm.
In our area, rain and windy conditions should begin tonight and continue to Friday. Tropical storm conditions are not expected, although gusts may reach that level in rain bands. Severe weather is also not expected.
Coastal Flood Watch
A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend immediate coasts from the Suwannee River Entrance westward to Destin for Wednesday evening to Thursday evening. Below is an excerpt from the statement:
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE COASTLINE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RISING WATER COMBINING WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG THE COAST. THE EFFECT OF THIS FLOODING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. AREAS PREVIOUSLY IMPACTED BY HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
AT THIS TIME…AREAS FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE CAN EXPECT STORM TIDE VALUES…WHICH IS THE HEIGHT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER…OF 3 TO 5 FEET AROUND HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AREAS FROM CAPE SAN BLAS TO SAINT MARKS CAN EXPECT STORM TIDE VALUES BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET AROUND THE HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AREAS FROM DESTIN TO MEXICO BEACH CAN EXPECT STORM TIDE VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET AROUND HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BELOW ARE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND LOW TIDE AT SELECTED LOCATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTLINES…
SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE…HIGH TIDE 1248 AM THURSDAY…LOW TIDE 555 AM THURSDAY…HIGH TIDE 1135 AM THURSDAY.
SHELL POINT…HIGH TIDE 115 AM THURSDAY…LOW TIDE 620 AM THURSDAY…HIGH TIDE 1227 AM THURSDAY.
SAINT GEORGE ISLAND…HIGH TIDE 138 AM THURSDAY…LOW TIDE 513 AM THURSDAY…HIGH TIDE 1042 AM THURSDAY.
NOTE THAT THE LOW TIDE AMPLITUDE AT THESE THREE SITES IS ONLY AROUND HALF A FOOT LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INUNDATION IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE COAST.
AT PANAMA CITY…HIGH TIDE 611 AM THURSDAY…LOW TIDE 425 PM THURSDAY.
AT DESTIN…HIGH TIDE 755 AM THURSDAY…LOW TIDE 637 PM THURSDAY.
HIGH SURF OF 9 TO 13 FEET…WITH HIGHER SETS UP TO 15 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM DESTIN TO SAINT GEORGE ISLAND IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. MUCH LOWER SURF HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED EAST OF SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TO ALLIGATOR POINT.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR ARNINGS…AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
Small Craft Advisory
A Small Craft Advisory is effect from 8 a.m. EDT this morning through Saturday afternoon. The forecast is as follows:
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-
TODAY
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE COAST…6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS…BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET ALONG THE COAST…9 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY…INCREASING TO ROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS…DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET ALONG THE COAST…9 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE. PROTECTED WATERS OUGH…DECREASING TO CHOPPY IN THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 ALONG THE COAST…8 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS…DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE COAST…7 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY…DECREASING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET…SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATERS SMOOTH TO A LIGHT CHOP.
Current readings from the buoy 115NM ESE of Pensacola (28°47’28” N 86°0’29” W)are reporting wave heights of approximately 10.2 feet with wind gusts to 25.3 kts.
Is anyone else suffering from sinus/allergy problems? My whole family has been sick for the last couple of days. Based on the fact that it happened after spending time outdoors, I think pollen may be the culprit.
Below is a graph from Pollen.com showing the recorded pollen levels for our area over the past 30 days. The pollen levels are on a scale of 12. Low is 0-2.4, Low-Medium is 2.5-4.8, Medium is 4.9-7.2, High-Medium is 7.3-9.6, and High is 9.7-12.0. These levels take into account how much pollen the allergy sufferer is likely to be exposed to for that given period.
As you can clearly see, there has been an major increase in the levels, particularly in the last week. Today’s level is 8.4, which is considered medium-high. The predominent pollens are ragweed and grass. So, if your feeling a bit stuffy, or just plain sick, you may want to stay indoors.
PCBDaily 