Florida Home and Condo Sales Up ?24% in September

Florida existing home and condo sales were up in September 24%, the highest year over year increase in almost three years.

A total of 10,817 existing homes sold in the state of Florida in September, that is 2,092 more than sold during September 2007. The last time the state of Florida reported a higher year over year gain was in 2005.

The September sales report from the Florida Association of Realtors shows a 24 percent increase in the sales of existing homes in the state; this represents the sixth month in a row that the sales figure has exceeded its 12-month moving average (average of the previous 12 months). This is a clear sign that the significant price declines that have occurred across the state are leading to a more rapid absorption of the housing inventory.” – Dr. Sean Snaith, economist and director of the University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Although the sales are up 24% this year, that increase can largely be attributed to the sharp decline that the housing market suffered at the end of the summer 2007 with the subprime mortgage meltdown. In July of this year, only six more existing homes sold in the state of Florida than did in July 2007.

Florida’s median home price in September was $175,100, down 22% from the same period a year ago, at $224,700. However, September’s median home price is still 10.3% higher than 2003’s number of $158,800.

During the September time period, year over year, existing condo sales experienced an 11% increase, from 2,595 to 2,878. The statewide median condo sales price was $153,800, down from $197,000 in September 2007 or a 22% decrease.

Panama City/Bay County reported 111 total existing home sales for September 2008, down from 117 (5%) homes sold during the same period 2007. Existing condo sales were down 28% September 2008 from 2007, from 67 to 48. The average sold price for Bay Couty was $213,770 in September 2008, down 19% from $264,122 during the same period 2007.

If you take out the top 10 highest priced from both time periods (September 07 and September 08), the average sold price was $193,848 in 2008, down 6.7% from 2007’s number of $207,942.

So, housing prices are still falling, but velocity sales are picking up. I suspect they will continue to pick up, and hopefully that rate will be exponential. As prices continue to fall, more and more people will be able to justify making a purchase.

Source: Florida’s existing home, condo sales increase in September 2008

Real Estate Market Conditions on Panama City Beach – September

September 2008 Report – Panama City Beach

Slightly over 4.5 % of the total Beach inventory for detached single family homes sold in September, down from slightly over 5% in August. If all things hold steady, there is over 19 months of inventory on the market. As of Oct 04, 2008 there were 750 DSF listed in the Bay County Association of REALTORS® MLS System for Panama City Beach. Out of the 34 homes that sold in September, 9 were foreclosures, 1 was a short sale, 3 were builder sales and the rest were typical sales. September 08 was 17% slower than August of 08 in total DSF’s sold, 34 compared to 41. The foreclosure rate of sales for detached single family homes on the Beach fell slightly to 26.5% of all the sales for September compared to 30 % in August. The absorption rate decreased slightly from 5% to 4.5% but the overall inventory of DSF also fell from 780 to 750. Out of the 35 homes 1 canal front home sold. There were no other waterfront sales. The average price per square foot was $142, including all 34 homes. However, if we nixed the top and bottom 5 the average price per square foot actually rose to $147.16. The average days on the market for all 34 homes was 206, a 12.5% decrease compared to August, which was 236. As of October 4th there are 66 DSF under contract (about 8.8 %) and 750 listed. This is a 3% improvement over August . These numbers overall are more positive than negative and reflect a slight strengthening. This is no time for elation but any sign of encouragement is welcomed.

2.6 % of the total Beach inventory of condominiums sold in September. This indicates a 38.5 month inventory of condominiums on the Beach and the statistics are basically the same for gulf front condo’s. As of October 6th there were 1582 total condominium listings, 1090 of which are gulf front. Out of the 41 total condominiums that sold in September only 4 were foreclosures (or slightly under 10%), one of which sold at auction, 5 were short sales (about 12 %), the other 78% were conventional sales. If gulf front condo’s were considered alone, all 25 sold for an average of $264.35 per square foot. If all condos are taken into consideration, the average price per square foot slips to $224.42. The average days on market for all condo’s sold is 134 and for gulf front only, 143 . As of October 6th there are 90 condos under contract out of 1582 total for the beach, or slightly over 5.6 %, and out of that there are 40 gulf front out of 1090 listed, a bit less than 3.7%. The numbers in September trended negative for condos. The absorption rate decreased from 3% to 2.6%, the average price per square foot declined for all condos about 9% and for gulf front 9.25%. There were less than half as many foreclosures sold but a significant growth in short sales or pre-foreclosures. The silver lining is that the overall inventory decreased by 38 units.

No inventory for multi-family homes sold in September. There are 65 active listings and 2 under contract as of October 6th.

About 2.6% of attached family homes sold in September for a total of 7 sales out of 266 listings. This leaves about 38 months of inventory on the market. There were 3 foreclosures sold out of the 7 and the average days on market was 88. The average price per square foot was $178.52. There are currently 19 units under contract. This sector of the market, though slipping a bit in absorption rate by about 1%, improved strongly in price per square foot, 22.5%, and decreased in average days on market by 26%. That is the bright spot in the market this month. It ought to be noted, however, the product that sold was a newer product across the board than last month’s sold inventory.

Sold	Listed	Avg DOM	Avg Price/SF	Mo’s of Inv	Abs. Rate	Forcl	Undr Const
Detached Single Family
34	750	206	147.16	19	4.5%	26.5%	66
Condo’s Total Panama City Beach
41	1582	134	224.42	38.5	2.6%	10%	90
Condo’s Gulf Front Only
25	1090	143	264.35	27.7	3.6%		40
Multi-Family
0	65
Attached Single Family
7	266	88	178.52	22.5	2.6%	42%	19

There are some things to keep in mind. One, these are snap shot reports not movies. There can be huge swings month to month which may yield either despair or elation depending on whether there is a sharp increase or decrease.

Second, these reports relate to posted listings and sales in the Bay County Association of REALTORS MLS System. Some sales occur “for sale by owner” or at auction. The average days on market for a property to sell is based upon a selling price that is competitive with the average sale price per square foot of the units that have sold. One must even fine tune it further because the average sales price per square foot that sold ought to be more tailor fit for a particular property based on age, condition, and location.

Buyers should note that there are far more seller-sold deals moving in this market than there are foreclosures. It would be foolish to simply look at foreclosures as de facto, the best deal of all. Many sellers are equally or perhaps more motivated than many of the banks that own property. All of us need to realize that there is simply far too much inventory on the market and both REALTORS® and sellers would do the market a favor if they could pull inventory that is simply overpriced. The only way value will build again is when the absorption rate improves and inventory decreases.

If you’re overpriced now you have very little chance of moving your property. In this market, one should sell only if one must; it is not a wise time to sell if it is discretionary. Buyers should be strongly encouraged by these market conditions.

Guessing the bottom of the market is like guessing the bottom of the stock market. We have been in a three year price correction. Our airport is well underway, we have had major improvements, businesses have come to our area, our property taxes have been lowered, Lord willing we will escape hurricane season with little damage, our election cycle will be soon over, the dollar is beginning to strengthen once again, even insurance rates have been eased in most cases, interest rates are near historical lows and the war is seeming a bit more victorious than defeatist in the most recent months.

All these positives must weigh in against the challenges that we have faced both locally and nationally and we all hope, with good reason, that in fairly short order the momentum will shift and affect our market positively. (The statistics provided above were all true as of September 2008 and were the product of Bay County Association of REALTORS® MLS System.)

Scott Seidler GRI
Broker-Associate
Prudential Shimmering Sands Realty
850-774-5007
ScottAndSonjaRealEstate.com

Condo Re-Sales Plummet

Here at www.condosaletrends.com, our only job is to take the data and present the trends so market participants can make informed investment decisions. So, no cheerleading, no anecdotal evidence. The data takes us to where the data takes us. We only track the sale of condo units within the 75 buildings along Thomas Drive and Front Beach Road (20,000 plus units) that are in our database. The analysis covers this particular segment of the market.

The number of real estate sales over a defined period does not by itself tell us if the bottom is near. However, the number of sales is a major factor in how supply and demand affects the market and merits analysis. Be warned, the following analysis is not for the faint of heart.

Our goal in this post is to look at the number of sales in order to gleam knowledge, based on empirical data, as to “what the hell is going on” around here. The “number of sales” or the “percentage of sales compared to listings” is not meaningful without comparing it to something.

The following table illustrates the number of arms-length condo sales from buildings in our database. The Palazzo auction sales are not included because they would skew the trend. What we really want know is how the auctions of unsold developer units may be affecting the larger condo resale market.

The August 2008 sales were down about 30% from the August 2007 sales and were trending downward from the 2008 May, June, and July numbers. The next table shows the number of sales from June 1, 2008 to September 15, 2008 compared to the same time frame in 2007. Because of the short time frame, the sales are broken into ½ month intervals. These are the reported numbers as of 3:30 pm 9/17/2008.

There were only nine reported sales for the first two weeks in September 2008. There were only three reported sales during the second week in September. Granted, there may be one or two additional sales within this time frame that are reported in the coming days. The data indicates that the trend in the number of sales is downward and steeply downward since late August. We will have a better idea of the sales trend in October after all of the September data is in.

The Palazzo auction resulted in 48 sales. As of 9/15/2008, public records indicated that 42 have closed. There are anecdotal reports that Palazzo has additional post auction contracts which have not closed. There are anecdotal reports that Sterling Breeze has 35 contracts based on some auction-type pricing, however none have closed. Ocean Reef with 162 total new units (only eleven units have closed since opening in March 2008) is holding an absolute auction for 31 units on October 18th.

It appears that the process of transferring 1,200 plus unsold developer units to private ownership is adversely affecting the number of sales within the larger resale condo market. In other words, those buyers who are financially able and willing to buy appear to be bypassing the Realtor/Seller relationship typical of most resale transactions and opting instead for the perceived discounts offered by the auctions or directly by the developers.

The data indicates that the number of sales of existing properties will continue to decline to levels we have never seen. Resales just can’t compete in terms of age and price with all of the unsold developer units.
Put on your spurs and hold on tight. This is going to be a wild ride.

Sam, www.condosaletrends.com

June 2008 Condo Market Anaysis from Condosaletrends.com

June 2008 Panama City Beach Condo Market Update

From Condosaletrends.com

We recently updated our Panama City Beach condo sales data through the end of May 2008. The graph below illustrates the number of monthly re-sales from the 70 Panama City Beach condo buildings in our database. The 2008 monthly re-sales through May mirror the number of re-sales from the same period in 2007 even though there has been a substantial number of new units come on line.

Continue reading “June 2008 Condo Market Anaysis from Condosaletrends.com” →