Mortgage rates remain at near eight month lows as strong demand in the bond market drove the yield on the ten year Treasury note below 3.20% before rising slightly to 3.25% today on a renewed rally in stocks. The rate on the benchmark thirty-year is hovering right at 5% with no points and the fifteen-year stands at 4.375. Thirty-year rates actually were pushing 6% back in the spring so this is quite an improvement and rather unexpected. The general consensus has been that as the economy pulls out of recession and as signs of economic growth become more evident, rates would rise as inflationary pressures mounted, but this has not materialized.
Tag: panama city beach condo loans
Rates Lower – Single Family Starts Fall
We have had some good news on the housing front over the past week as the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence rose in September for the third consecutive month to its highest level since May of 2008. The Census Bureau also released a report on August home starts that showed builders broke ground on 598,000 new homes, up 1.5% from July.
The good news was tempered, however, by a surprising drop in the number of single family home starts. While overall starts were up, thanks to a resurgence in multi-family property starts, single-family starts actually fell 3% in August. Some analysts suggested the drop in single-family home starts could simply be an anomaly and point to the overall report as yet another sign that the housing market has bottomed.
Mortgage rates have continued to defy the rally in the stock market with the benchmark conforming thirty-year, fixed-rate settling in at 5.125% with no points. The fifteen year fixed also improved to just under 4.50% as the bond market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will keep rates low for the foreseeable future. Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has helped reaffirm this belief by stating that while the economy may be approaching the end of the recession the overall economy, and particularly job growth, are likely to remain weak for some time. With the apparent lack of any inflationary pressures on the horizon, the Fed is determined to keep monetary policy very accommodating to insure the economy does not slip back into recession. Over the short-run, I expect mortgage rates to remain in their current narrow range and could ease even further.
One late report out this week from the IRS said that, so far, 1.4 million first-time homebuyers have taken advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. The credit is due to expire on November 30th though there are already some calls from Congress that it should be extended. I’ll keep you posted.
Home Prices Post GAIN
We have received more good news on the housing market this past week beginning with Last Friday’s report from the National Association of Realtors’ report on July existing home sales which showed a jump of 7.2% over June and up 5% from July of 2008. It was the biggest month-over-month increase in existing home sales since NAR began tracking the statistic in 1999.
On Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices increased 2.9% in the three months ending June 30th. This was the first quarter-over-quarter increase in three years providing further evidence that the housing market has since bottomed and is on the road to recovery. Late breaking news on new home sales came in this morning which showed a jump of 9.6% in July, the highest level since September 2008.
Mortgage rates have stayed in a range over the past week with only mild daily fluctuations in contrast to the increased volatility we had seen in the week prior. The Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac conforming fixed-rate for single-family purchases stands at 5.375% with no points and the fifteen year stands at 4.625%. Rates have been helped by tame inflation reports and a well received government bond auction last week.
Rates have even managed to brush off a better than expected 4.9% increase in durable goods orders reported today with bonds actually a hair higher after the report. I expect rates will remain in their current range over the next week as they have for the past month or so. In the longer term, we will have to see if there are further signs of an improving economy and, if so, will those signs be strong enough to bring some inflationary fears back into the market. So far all indications are that though we are in the beginnings of a recovery, it will be very slow and take some time to fully rebound.
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 5.5%
Mortgage rates have managed to hold steady despite renewed optimism in the stock market spurred by better than expected corporate earnings reports and evidence the recession is nearing an end. The benchmark thirty-year, fixed-rate is right at 5.50% with no points and we are seeing more parity with other mortgage programs lately as both FHA and VA thirty-year rates are also at 5.50%. The rate on the fifteen-year, fixed-rate stands at 5.00%.
Mortgage rates have benefited from reassuring remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who on Tuesday told lawmakers at his semi-annual address before congress that he plans to keep monetary policy “extremely accommodative” for some time meaning no rate increases are likely for the foreseeable future. I do not expect to see rates rise over the next week unless the stock market gets on an exceptional run of gain. Many analysts still feel the market exuberance seen of late is still premature as investors continue to cheer less than expected losses instead of actual increases in net profits.
We had some great news on the housing front last Friday as the government reported that initial construction of homes as well as new applications for building permits surged more than economists had expected. Housing starts rose to as seasonally adjusted annual rate of 562,000 in June, up 3.6% from May. The consensus estimate was for an annual rate of 524,000. Single-family housing starts were up a whopping 14.4%. Building permits rose 8.7% in June to an annually adjusted 563,000 while economists had expected only 530,000. This was the highest number of new permits since December and the second straight month of increases since the all-time low set in April. All this is just more evidence that the battered housing market has bottomed and finally on the upswing despite a continuing rise in unemployment.
The Mystery of the Term 'Condo-tel'
Since I am getting so many questions these days regarding condos and condo-tels and since the secondary market for these properties, i.e. Fannie and Freddie, has all but disappeared, I thought I would try and clarify why a project will or will not fly. First, a condo-tel is not a new concept. It has always been a type of property designation we use along with single family detached, duplex, etc. The problem is that for many years, Fannie and Freddie did not adequately identify beach-front, resort-style condominiums for what they really were. So what makes a condo-tel? Actually, any number of things. I have heard many times that a project is not a condo-tel because it doesn’t have an on-site rental desk. While an on-site rental desk would classify a project as a condo-tel the absence of one does not make it immune. If they have a website that advertises rentals it is a condo-tel. If an owner is required to rent per the bylaws it is a condo-tel. If it has daily maid service it is a condo-tel. So if a project doesn’t have any of these things then it is okay with Fannie and Freddie and fixed-rate financing is available? Not necessarily.
There is another classification we use for condominiums and this is the term ‘warrantable.’ Warrantable refers to whether it can be warranted as sellable to Fannie or Freddie meaning it meets their criteria for an acceptable condominium project. So what makes a condominium ‘non-warrantable’? If the developer is still in control of the HOA it is non-warrantable. If more than 50% of the units are investor owned it is non-warrantable. If one entity owns more than 10% of the total units it is non-warrantable. If the project has pending litigation against it or if a large percentage of owners are delinquent in their HOA dues, or any number of other factors cited by the appraiser can lead to a project being classified as non-warrantable. Every once in a while we come across a project that we can warrant but they are rare to say the least.
Between a project having one or more condo-tel attributes or having one or more of the non-warrantable attributes, you can see that most every condo here on the beach has no secondary market financing available. This is why a few banks like Vision have developed alternative vehicles to get these properties financed. Our portfolio 3/1 and 5/1 ARMs are not a panacea. Yes, they carry a certain amount of risk and the rates are at a premium over the current thirty-year fixed-rates, but, in the absence of a secondary market, these ARMs are the best alternative for providing financing to the buyer while protecting the bank from interest rate risk and meeting our future capital requirements. It is our hope that in there will eventually be a thawing in the secondary market for condos and that our products can provide a bridge to that future. In the meantime, we will continue to lend on these properties because we have a vested interest in seeing them sell and we have a firm belief that the collateral is sound.
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