Video of the New Airport

Well, someone else has outdone me. There is a new video of the new Panama City airport up in West Bay that has been posted to the newpcairport.com web site.

Of course, I could probably put something together equally as awesome had I been given the opportunity to get on a helicopter! Kidding, but not really. Actually, I don’t know how to do those cool transitions – after effects?

Anyway, kudos to the creater – this vid is awesome.

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=2826899&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=&fullscreen=1
Panama City/Bay County Airport Preview from Greg Wineman on Vimeo.

Grand Lagoon

It’s good to be back after the holidays. Hope everyone has a wonderful and prosperous new year.

Wild life is abundant in the lagoons and bayous surrounding PCB. This photo shows a Great Egret on the prowl in the salt grass marshes close to Bay Point. Great egrets are plentiful in Grand Lagoon, especially in the shallow flats on either side of the main boating channel.

Take it slow the next time you’re headed out to the Gulf and observe the beauty above the water.

Teddy

Florida Real Estate Outlook for 2009

Are you the type of person who believes the glass is half full or the glass is half empty? If you think the glass is half empty, then you probably think that real estate in Florida is in the toilet. If you’re the positive type and believe just the opposite, you’re probably not listing to the national media who continue to bash the state of the market at every given opportunity. Don’t believe everything you hear! Real estate is local in nature, and we in Bay County are very blessed to have many factors working in our favor to turn this market around.

Real estate markets are, by nature, cyclical, and we happen to still be in a downturn. Take heart though; our real estate downtown began much earlier and was much steeper than many other parts of our fine country. As you know, we were helped by numerous events beyond anyone’s control (force majeure)…hurricanes, shark attacks, “flippers” (who are, buy the way, speculators, not investors). Reason, and historical data, both demonstrate that we should be nearing the end of a very ugly time to sell your home. When buyers ask me, “When do you think the market will reach bottom?”… my answer is always, “When you see it start to go back up.” You can no more try to time the real estate market than you can the stock market

Despite what you may hear on the media, people are still able to obtain loans for homes. They may be required to have more down payment money available and to have a good credit score, but there are banks and mortgage brokers lending money. And, if you are a veteran and can qualify for a VA loan, the time to buy is now. Also, don’t forget the first time home buyer credit, which is available as a $7,500 tax credit until the middle of 2009.

Although mortgage money is available if you qualify, right now, cash is king. As fast as investors fled from the market, savvy real estate investors have been dreaming of this time to return. The quintessential buyer’s market! Now is definitely the time when buyers get to pick and choose among the large inventory and can actually cashflow a property. For anyone who can buy right now, you should be looking. NOW! Opportunities abound, and there will be tremendous returns to those purchasing property right now. Remember, real estate is always meant for a long turn hold. The “flipping time” is gone with the wind. But real estate is tangible and REAL.

So, how’s that stock market treating you right now?

SUNCARD Signup Friday, January 16

Panama City Beach Convention & Visitors Bureau To Host Winter Guest “SUNCARD” Sign-Up on Friday, January 16

SunCard Program Caters to Winter Residents by Providing Discounts and Offers at Participating Beach Businesses.

Panama City Beach, Fla. – The Panama City Beach Convention & Visitors Bureau will once again host its Winter Resident SunCard sign-up day on Friday, January 16th offering winter resident’s complimentary coffee and donuts while they register for the SunCard.

Hosted by the Convention and Visitors Bureau, winter residents from Canada, the Midwest, Northeast and other parts of the United States will be treated to complimentary coffee and donuts from 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. on Friday, January 16th. The Visitor Information Center is located at the corner of Hwy 98 and Hwy 79 in Panama City Beach. Additional complimentary coffee & donut days are scheduled for January 30th, February 13th & February 27th.

Through March 30th, Convention and Visitors Bureau personnel are on-hand to issue the official Winter Resident “SunCard” to new winter residents and repeat winter residents during regular business hours, Monday through Sunday, 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Panama City Beach winter residents can use their free SunCard throughout the area for value added programs and discounts at participating restaurants, hotels, and other area attractions and events.

“The purpose of this program is to extend a warm welcome to all our winter residents and let them know how much we appreciate them here in Panama City Beach,” stated Dan Rowe, President and CEO of the Panama City Beach Convention & Visitors Bureau. “We look forward to rolling out the welcome mat on Friday to our seasonal guests.”

The annual SunCard program will run through March 30, 2009.

For more information, go to visitpanamacitybeach.com or call 850-233-5070.

New FNMA Condo Guidelines Chilling to Panama City Beach

FNMA released new condo eligibility guidelines for mortgages acceptable to be purchased by FNMA in Announcement 08-34. These new guidelines are directed specifically toward condominiums located in Florida. The guidelines specify particular situations that place additional restrictions on condominium mortgages that FNMA will purchase in the secondary market. The new guidelines have an effective date of January 15, 2009.

Some of the highlights are:

Reduced loan to value ratios.
70 percent of the total units in a project must have been sold or under a bona fide contract to a principal residence or second home purchaser. This could affect new buildings such as Trade Winds, Ocean Reef, Origin of Seaheaven, Grand Panama, Shores of Panama, Etc.
No more than 15 percent of the total units in a project can be 30 days or more past due on the payment of their condominium/association fee payments. This includes the unsold units where the developer is responsible for paying the HOA fees.
Increased insurance requirements for the HOA and the unit owners.
Projects are ineligible where a single entity (the same individual, investor group, partnership, or corporation) owns more than 10 percent of the total units in the project. This may affect Emerald Beach where the Wyndham Corporation owns more than 50 percent of the units. If a hedge fund comes in and buys 10-20 percent of a project, say the Trade Winds, it could mean that FNMA would not purchase any mortgages of the remaining units.
Review of the project HOA budget and income statement, especially for projects where the developer is still in control of the HOA. This could be a problem for projects where the developer has not fully funded the required HOA fees of the unsold units.
Projects are ineligible where the HOA or developer (if he is still in control of the HOA) is named as a party to current litigation that relates to the project. This could affect Shores of Panama that is in bankruptcy or projects where the developer is being sued for nonpayment of construction work or services.

Lenders are also increasingly reluctant to lend on what they consider to be condo-tels. FNMA may consider projects with any of the following characteristics as condo-tels:

Front Desk/Registration Service
Central telephone system
Daily cleaning service
Advertising rental rates
Central key system
Few or no full time residents
Short-term rentals

There are exceptions to all of the rules. However, if you have a great contract from a well qualified buyer, don’t be surprised if the loan gets rejected by the lender. Additional loan collateral requirements will mean fewer sales and a longer market recover period.

Sam Portman, www.condotrends.com

Lawmakers – Leave the Affordable Housing Trust Money Alone

In an effort to plug Florida’s $2.6 billion deficit, lawmakers are threatening to sweep $190 million from the Florida Affordable Housing Trust.

The fund was established in 1992 and is funded directly from a portion of doc stamp taxes and is used to build new single-family homes and multi-family housing projects and for financial assistance programs.

Originally, lawmakers were eyeing a more robust taking of $284 million, but when it was estimated that the fund appropriations would only generate $170 million for 2009, they lowered their steal to $190 million. This taking away of this money will negatively effect the real estate and housing industry in the state of Florida.

This morning an email was sent out to all BCAR members, but I wanted to get this issue in front of the readers of pcbdaily.com. Please don’t hesitate to email Representatives Jimmy Patronis and Marti Coley and urge them to NOT STEAL THE MONEY FROM THE FLORIDA AFFORDABLE HOUSING TRUST.

Jimmy Patronis email: jimmy.patronis@myfloridahouse.gov

Marti Coley email: marti.coley@myfloridahouse.gov

New Airport Constructin Update

Construction at the new Panama City-Bay County International Airport continues to run smoothly and is currently about 3 and a half months ahead of schedule. A summary of the contracts underway follows.

Contract 1: Heavy Civil and Airfield Lighting:

115 pieces of heavy equipment in operation at any one time with approximately 160 personnel on site.

46% of time utilized (360 of 780 days).

37% of the 15” concrete paving lanes have been placed on 8,500 linear feet of Runway 16-34.

On Taxiway D, all lime rock base and the majority of the first 2” lift of P-401 base have been placed.

12,902 tons of asphalt base course is in place along the Main Access Road (MRA) and loop road. Curb and lime rock base installation within terminal parking lots now 100% complete. Asphalt base course is in place over 75% of main parking lot.

34,888 tons of asphalt base and 20,000 cubic yards of structural concrete have been placed on 8,400 linear feet of Runway 16-34.

6,780 tons of asphalt base has been placed on Taxiway D, and the main apron.

Stormwater drainage pipe installation is now 99% complete.

Storm sewer installation within the General Aviation Area is now underway.

Over 5.4 million cubic yards of earth has been moved (98% of total).

Mass grading within Pond C now 90% complete.

Contract 2: Terminal Building, ATCT and Support Buildings:

Gulf Power has completed installation of temporary overhead power to the Terminal Building location and site office trailers.

Installation of reinforcing steel continues along Area’s A and B of the Terminal Building.

New design of the Air Traffic Control Tower auger cast piles was required due to the original design not meeting the required load test. The original design required 72 piles drilled to a depth of 52 feet. The new design, based on the actual field load tests will require 44 piles drilled to a depth of 70.33 feet and 28 piles drilled to a depth of 80.33 feet.

Rough-in of electrical and plumbing for the Air Cargo Facility is completed.

Installation of mat reinforcing steel and dowels for the Air Cargo Facility is completed.

Installation of the drainage structures for the Airport Maintenance Facility continues.

Contract 3: Utility Contract:
- Contract has been executed and all necessary submittals, insurance and bonds have been received from the Contractor. Notice to Proceed is anticipated within the first week of January.

Pier Park Beach Ball Drop Video

Pier Park’s Beach Ball Drop in Panama City Beach was a huge success with thousands in attendance from all over the south-eastern United States. The CVB’s marketing blitz covered our drive-to market while locals attended in droves.

I had a blast there with my buddy Lou shooting the whole event and have actually spent probably 12 hours reviewing and editing to get just over 5 minutes of reliving the New Year’s Eve Party on Panama City Beach.

The original version was about 8 minutes long, but I edited it down to really focus on the action. I hope that this brings back some of the emotion of the night for those of you that were there, and for those that were not there, I hope this depicts what an awesome time it truly was.

I want to thank Pier Park’s Felecia Cook for all the hard work that she and her assistant, Ashley Capps did to pull this great event off. With the help of the PCB CVB and the local tourism industry, this is sure to be a grand tradition that we will all enjoy for years to come.

Enjoy the video.

View in HD

2008 Panama City Beach Condo Market Analysis

2008 was a turbulent year for the local real estate market and 2009 doesn’t look much better. The Panama City Beach, Florida condo market continues to trend downward. New sale price lows are set almost every month in high quality beach-side buildings. There are numerous examples of list prices that are below the lowest reported sale price of a particular model unit. Foreclosure proceedings in high quality beach-side buildings have accelerated in every quarter over the past year. The number of monthly, arms-length, market-rate sales from the 70 buildings within our http://www.condosaletrends.com database continues to decline. The market dynamics at play in the local market and just the market inertia will most likely drag prices lower.

The graph below illustrates the number of monthly re-sales from the 70 Panama City Beach condo buildings in the http://www.condosaletrends.com database (20,000 Units). The total 2008 re-sales are lower than any year over the past five years.

The sale price trend line is illustrated below. It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date. The starting date used was May 1, 2007 so we could show the price trend for the preceding 19 months. We chose units from a variety of buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant. The units used in the analysis were:

Boardwalk Beach	Opened in 2005	1,380 SF	2BR/2Ba
Calypso	Opened in 2006	1,226 SF	2BR/2Ba
Celadon	Opened in 2004	846 SF	1BR/2Ba
Grandview	Opened in 2005	1,492 SF	3BR/2Ba
Gulf Crest	Opened in 2003	1,388 SF	2BR/2Ba
Emerald Isle	Opened in 2005	1,146 SF	2BR/2Ba
Treasure Island	Opened in 2005	1,370 SF	2BR/2Ba
The Summit	Opened in 1983	912 SF	1BR/1.5Ba
Regency Towers	Opened in 1975	1,114 SF	2BR/2Ba
Sterling Reef	Opened in 1975	1,076 SF	2BR/2Ba
Splash	Opened in 2006	1,074 SF	2BR/2Ba
Seychelles	Opened in 2006	883SF	1BR/2Ba

The May 1, 2007 market value for each type of unit was determined by analyzing sales data from January 1, 2007 to June 19, 2007. The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of May 1, 2007. In other words, a unit type with a May 1, 2007 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%. An October 2007, $380,000 resale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the May 1, 2007 sale price. The sale prices and sale dates were charted with a price trend line for each type of unit. The chart contained in the following price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 12 buildings. Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low were not included. There were 184 sales used in the chart. The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction. The data is just the data.

The data indicates that the rate of price decline has been mostly steady over the past 20 months. Compared to 2007, it appears that typical prices have declined approximately 15% over the past 12 months. There are numerous examples of condo units that are listed for sale at prices below the lowest sale price of that particular unit. Price stabilization in the near term is not indicated.

The Panama City Beach condo market will not hit bottom until most if not all of the unsold developer units are transferred to private ownership. The condo market will not hit bottom until most of the condo units whose owners are significantly upside down, with high “loan-to-purchase price” mortgages and who do not have the financial horsepower to hang on are sold at current market values.

2009 will most likely see additional price declines, fewer sales, and additional foreclosures.

Sam Portman, www.condosaletrends.com

PCBDaily has moved!

Well, I’ve moved, to be precise. If you have been wondering “hey, what’s that Jason character been up to, pcbdaily has seemed sparse lately.” Then your wondering is definately justified.

We had our baby begining of December, then family came in town, then Christmas, then New Years, then we moved New Year’s weekend (that’s why the Pier Park vid won’t be up until tonight), leaving me almost totally incapacitated and barely able to keep up with the bare minimums on everything.

Nevertheless, we are moved, settled in and the whole event has borne me an office of my own. No more sharing a room with the kid’s play area and Spongebob square pants. The new diggs will afford me a whole new level of productivity.

We have much planned for 2009 on pcbdaily, and for Panama City Beach, this is a whole new year. With elements in place that we’ve never, as a community, had before, this year will be paramount.

Thanks for reading!