The past few years Panama City Beach has had some pretty easy hurricane seasons, but experts predict the 2010 season is predicted to be more active than the average for the 1950-2000 seasons. Reports estimate 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes to occur during this year which is up significantly from the past two years as well as the average.
This forecasting system uses a statistical methodology that comes from 58 years of past data and climate-related global and regional predictors.
Importance of Hurricane Season Forecasts
The early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued in December can be seen as a good estimate of future storm activity. The scientists at Colorado State University are hesitant to release actual storm number predictions until April 2010. Yet, this December 2009 report aims to “satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.” This is the 27th year that the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has released a hurricane season forecast.
Due to the fact that previous December forecasts have yet to show a satisfactory forecast skill, the December reports only issue a range of numbers and an assessment of current conditions. This assessment provides the background for the forecast in determining the likely conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone presence. The specific numbers will not be issued until early April 2010.
The hurricane season officially runs June 1st through November 30.