Ironman this weekend – bikers/runners everywhere

Swim 2.4 miles, Bike 112 miles, Run 26.2 miles. If that doesn’t make you into “iron”, I don’t know what will. I’ve never been a triathlete, but knowing a few, I have huge respect for the feat they overcome in order to compete in these remarkable competitions.

I couldn’t even imagine running 26.2 miles, but these athletes precede this with a long swim and a very long bike ride. And many of them do it in less than 10 hours.

Ironman Florida has been in Panama City Beach since 1999. With normally crystal clear skies, warm weather, and warm water, Panama City Beach has proven year after year that this is the prime place for a competition of this nature.

Every year thousands of triathletes, and hundreds of profesisonals flock to our area to participate in this event of all events.

The weather this weekend is expected to be perfect and the water warm. Staging is taking place today with change bags carefully organized in strategic rows so that each competitor can move from stage to stage as seamlessly as possible. The South Thomas Drive area is packed with it being extremely difficult to walk, much less drive. Baracades have been put up making parking nearly impossible without a short walk, and the massage tent is up, running and full of sore and weary muscles being relaxed and soothed.

The race begins tomorrow with the 2.4 mile swim in the gulf behind Boardwalk at 7 am. As early as 8 o’clock, athletes will be exiting the water to begin their 112 mile bicycle ride. Many cyclists will return from their journey up highway 79, across highway 20, down highway 231, back across highway 388, and down highway 79 as early as noon to run over 26 miles. Wow.

Anyway, I’ll be around tomorrow to take various pictures and talk to whoever will talk to me. See ya at the race!

Resort to Quality Education Program gives over $1k

Panama City Beach, Fla. (October 15, 2008)—The Resort Collection of Panama City Beach announced the first award presentation to a participating school in their Resort to Quality Education (RQE) program, which began in the spring of 2008. The RQE program was created in an effort to promote the vacation properties within the Resort Collection while supporting education and contributing to schools.

Any school may participate in the program simply by informing parents, teachers and school supporters about the RQE offer through flyers, posters, school web sites or any other appropriate means of communication. Every time a teacher, student, parent or school supporter makes a reservation with any Resort Collection property and gives the name of the participating school, a 20% discount will be given off the room rate. The Resort Collection will then give 5% of the total room revenue accrued under that school’s name back to the school every quarter.

Recently, The Resort Collection awarded the first RQE program check. On October 10, 2008, The Resort Collection’s Business Development Manager and local Director of RQE, Heather Walsh, presented a quarterly check for $1195.60 to Jim Arrington, headmaster of Macon-East Montgomery Academy, located in Cecil, Alabama.

President of the RQE program, Mike O’Malley, said, “I am honored and blessed to be involved in the development of the RQE program that offers schools the opportunity to fund future educational programs in a creative way. For years, our resort properties have witnessed families enjoying our accommodations and this program gives us the ability to send a little of us home with them. We can’t wait to see how these funds are used by the participating schools and how we can further expand our participation in promoting quality education.”

Condo Market after Ocean Reef Condo Auction

The Ocean Reef auction on October 18, 2008 concluded with a reported 35 sales. Sounds good but they still have over 140 unsold units in their inventory. The 2BR/2Ba units sold for $225,500, including the auction fee, which is about 20% less than recent sales of very similar Emerald Isle 2BR/2Ba units. This tells us that there are a few buyers out there willing to buy at a 20% discount. The Palazzo auction in August told us there were a few buyers out there willing to buy at a 10% discount. The question is whether buyers will demand more than a 20% discount at the next auction.

We reported in July that there were over 1,300 unsold, high-quality developer units in beach-side buildings in Panama City Beach. The Palazzo auction sold 50 units in August, the Ocean Reef auction sold 35 units in October, and Sterling Breeze closed 30 units in-house since July. That still leaves around 1,200 unsold developer units that need to be sold. 1,200 unsold developer units most likely means more auctions and lower prices.

The local condo market continues to trend downward. The chart later in this post indicates that sale prices as of October 2008 are down 15% compared to October 2007. New lows are set almost every month in high quality beach-side buildings. There are numerous examples of list prices that are below the lowest reported sale price of a particular model unit. Foreclosure proceedings in high quality beach-side buildings have accelerated in every quarter over the past year. The number of monthly, arms-length, market-rate sales from the 70 buildings within our database continues to decline. The market dynamics at play in our local market and just the market inertia will most likely drag prices lower.

Is there any good news here? If your basis for news is the year 2005, then market values have declined 50% and the world is coming to an end. However, if your basis is the year 2002 then story is more upbeat. Let’s look at the 744 square foot, 1BR/1Ba units in Long Beach Towers. These units were selling in 2002 for around $175,000. Currently, they are selling in the $215,000 range for a 23% increase since 2002. The rate of inflation in constant dollars over the same period was 21%. Not bad when you consider any other long lived item (vehicles, equipment, etc) you purchase almost always depreciates over time.

It is unreasonable to assume that residential property will always increase in value at a rate higher than the inflation rate. If you extend price increases at a 2% to 3% rate above the inflation rate over a 30 year period, people will be spending more than 75% of their income on a place to live. That is not a sustainable scenario.

Is this a good time to buy? If price is your main consideration, the operative question becomes “is it a good time to buy today relative to what point in time”. Certainly, today is a better time to buy than six months ago. But is it a better time to buy today than six months from now? The answer you will get depends on the agenda of whom you ask. Speculation in this kind of market is not for the faint of heart.

The following is an update of our usual, no spin data from http://www.condosaletrends.com which we hope will help you in your investment decisions. As always, if you lie to yourself about things concerning money, you lose.

We recently updated our Panama City Beach condo sales data through mid October 2008. The graph below illustrates the number of monthly re-sales from the 70 Panama City Beach condo buildings in our database. The 2008 monthly re-sales since July appear to be trending lower than past years.

The market trend line is illustrated below. It is structured to show a sale price trend measured in terms of the percentage sale price as of a particular date. The starting date used was May 1, 2007 so we could show the price trend for the preceding 19 months. We chose units from a variety of buildings of different ages and sizes that had a sufficient number of sales as to be statistically significant. The units used in the analysis were:

Boardwalk Beach; Opened in 2005; 1,380 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Calypso; Opened in 2006; 1,226 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Celadon; Opened in 2004; 846 SF; 1BR/2Ba
Grandview; Opened in 2005; 1,492 SF; 3BR/2Ba
Gulf Crest; Opened in 2003; 1,388 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Emerald Isle; Opened in 2005; 1,146 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Treasure Island; Opened in 2005; 1,370 SF; 2BR/2Ba
The Summit; Opened in 1983; 912 SF; 1BR/1.5Ba
Regency Towers; Opened in 1975; 1,114 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Sterling Reef; Opened in 2005; 1,076 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Splash: Opened in 2006; 1,074 SF; 2BR/2Ba
Seychelles; Opened in 2006; 883SF; 1BR/2Ba

The May 1, 2007 market value for each type of unit was determined by analyzing sales data from January 1, 2007 to June 19, 2007. The sale price of each type of unit is only compared to the typical sale price of that particular type of unit as of May 1, 2007. In other words, a unit type with a May 1, 2007 market value of $400,000 is represented as 1 or 100%. An October 2007, $380,000 sale of that type of unit is depicted as .95 or 95% of the May 1, 2007 sale price. The sale prices and sale dates were charted with a price trend line for each type of unit. The chart contained in the price trend analysis is a trend line of the trend lines of the sale prices of each type of unit from the 12 buildings. Foreclosure sale prices that were unrealistically low were not included. There were 177 sales used in the chart. The analysis does not try to skew the price trend in any direction. The data is just the data.

The data indicates that the rate of price decline has been mostly steady over the past 19 months. Compared to October 2007, it appears that typical prices have declined approximately 15% over the past 12 months. Price stabilization is not indicated.

Sam Portman
www.condosaletrends.com

PCBDaily Twitter Weekly Updates for 10-28-2008

Heading to an airport meeting #
Of you are reading this right now, shut down your computer and go outside, it is gorgeous in panama city beach #
Boo at pier park was great with free bouncy houses and crafts for the kids. You should go if you can. #
Heading to boo in the park at pier park panama city beach #
Oh man, yesterday was nasty rainy, but today is nothing short of an absolutely gorgeous day #
Just finishing up a “why buy now” article about the Panama City Beach real estate market. check it in the am, yea, I’m off to bed. #
@ChrisTheMacGuy Pier Park is perfect for rainy day shopping, they say it should clear up tomorrow. Enjoy your vacation! in reply to ChrisTheMacGuy #
It is a rainy day in panama city beach #
Working on ad sales tool. Advertise with pcbdaily! Support you favorite online rag! #
Checking on my motorcycle that is for sale. BUY MY MOTORCYCLE #

MTVu Coming… with full database and measurement

The TDC Marketing Committee voted today to move forward with the $250K MTVu Spring Break Partnership. There seems to be a lot of kinks to be worked out, and there were definitely “wishes” put out by the committee and audience members that simply won’t be fulfilled, but the good news is that the CVB will begin properly gathering data with a “PCB Insiders” program, enabling Spring Breakers (and other future segments) to sign up for email and mobile phone updates and promotions. We’ll be sure to get results of these efforts at the end of Spring Break 09.

This will all be accomplished through a fantastic rich media, interactive Spring Break 09 website that may or may not be developed by YPartnership of “Summer White Sale Website” infamy. The new staff at the CVB should be able to make this quantum leap from the failed email marketing programs of recent past, because the new mobile phone and email programs are outsourced services that are easily implemented.

The co-op partners who participate will be able to communicate with the new database being built by the CVB. The database will be rich with information and accessible for clear measurement.

My question is… are paying co-op partners the only ones who should benefit from the TDC/CBV database? I mean, if I were a bed tax collector, writing that check every month, I’d kinda’ like to think I had access to anything the TDC gathered. But, you know, I’m not a bed tax collector. I’m just sympathetic to their collection burdens. If you are a bed tax collector, this is a good place for you to voice your opinion.

MTVu is good for the local economy. It worked last year for a lot of people. MTVu brings enough traffic that rooms are booked and promoters/sponsors have all kinds of opportunities to create relationships with these future guests and residents for a lifetime.

We’ll be writing more posts about Spring Break all the way up to the Big Bang, and welcome your opionions. But here’s one thing you Spring Break haters can consider in the meantime: How about planning to get out and meet the students face-to-face to accomplish some of your goals? Why not plan drug and alcohol prevention pizza parties? What about a job fair? Maybe join the dozens of “Alternative Spring Breakers” who will be doing things such as cleaning the beach or ministering their faith in God? Go help the Panama City Rescue mission collect cans every afternoon.

There is plenty of good and bad on this beach, 365 days per year. You can choose to be a part of the Good.

Halloween Fun for the Little Ones

There are great options for Halloween this year.

Before heading out the door remember to grab your camera, video camera, flashlight(s), glow sticks, candy bags, an extra tube of face paint and wet wipes. Where would we be without those wet wipes?

‘Malloween’ at Pier Park
From 6-8 p.m. on Oct. 31
Bring the kids out for trick or treating, a costume competition, festival maze and special treats.
Sign up at 6 p.m. for the costume contest. There are three age categories, as well “scariest,” “most creative” and “best-all-around” categories. So get out that glue gun and get creative!

Panama City Mall
Let the little ones terrorize the Panama City Mall in their quest for candy.
Oct. 31, from 6-8 p.m.

Monstrous Halloween Celebration at Rosemary Beach
(Not located in PCB, but just across the bridge for those who live on the West end)
Trick-or-Treat, from 4-6 p.m.
Let the little goblins trick-or-treat in downtown Rosemary Beach. Visit Gigi’s Fabulous Kids’ Fashion and Toys and have their Halloween photo taken.
Monster Bash, from 6-8 p.m.
Join the fun at The Summer Kitchen restaurant. Children $5, adults, $10. Cost includes scary food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Two other restaurants, Wild Olives and Cowgirl Kitchen are hosting Halloween specials for the big (21 and older) kids.

‘ZooBoo’ at ZooWorld
From 4:30-8 p.m. on Nov. 1
Free, but donations are greatly appreciated.
Probably one of the most anticipated events of the year (at least in my house). What is spookier than trick-or-treating with lions and tigers? Get ready for a wild night of fun.
The costume contest begins at:
6 p.m. = ages 3 and younger
6:15-6:30 p.m. = ages 4-10
6:45 p.m. = ages 11-15
7 p.m. = 16 and older

If I left out your favorite event, please let me know!

Photo credit: Euart by a Creative Commons License.

Photos from You – Ike Sunset, Mexico Beach, and more

Every week we’ll feature photos from you, the reader, of anything from crowded streets at Pier Park, to finger crabs scurrying across the beach. They say pictures are worth a thousand words, share your words with pcbdaily.com. Submit your photos and share your Panama City Beach pictures.

People on the beach at sunset as Hurricane Ike Roars past the panhandle.

Submitted by Kerry Hulber

Tropical Sunset in Mexico Beach

Submitted by Donna Cox

Video of Jason Koertge on the Lee Sullivan Show

I was on the Lee Sullivan Show a few weeks ago, and have gotten the show online. Lee and I discussed the TDC, the Summer White Sale and how IT WASN’T wildly successful, college spring break, sports marketing, bed tax increase, and tons more.

I’ve broken the show down to four videos. Total, it is around 20 minutes.

Segment 1

Segment 2:

Segment 3:

Segment 4:

Be sure to post a comment below!

Boo in Pier Park Pictures

I took the kids to Boo in the Park at Pier Park in Panama City Beach today. The weather has been crumby for the last couple of days, but overnight, everything cleared up and today, was just flat-out gorgeous, we totally live in paradise. Of course, the fact that Pier Park is just so dang beautiful helps a lot too.

They had pumpkin carving today, a pet parade, arts and crafts supported by the Visual Arts Center of Panama City (suppor the arts!), pine-straw bale mazes, bouncey houses, a helicopter display, and tons more. It was a blast, the kids had a blast, everyone was having a blast. And did I say that today was so absolutely beautiful? Man, I love Panama City Beach.

Check the pix.

Buy Now! – But Why?

The real estate market is in the toilet. Or is it? I mean, everything is relative. Everything is subject to interpretation. Right?

Sure, the real estate market is in the toilet. . . for sellers. But for buyers, the real estate market is hotter than a nanny goat in a pepper patch. (nice cliche, huh?)

In every type category, there is a surplus in supply. In Panama City Beach alone, there are 537 lots, 770 single family homes, and 1570 condos active for sale on the Bay County MLS. In many cases prices are half now what they were just 12 months ago.

Velocity is down. In any given category, we have several years of inventory given the current rate of sales. The growing trend of using auctions to dump inventory in indicative of developers realizing that their inventory needs to be liquidated – sometimes, at all costs.

Foreclosures are up. They are higher now than they have ever been, and that’s the same story we’ve been hearing, over and over. In fact, foreclosures this year have been higher year-over-year, each month of 2008.

Negative Nancy, you say? Well, hold the phone, bubba.

This is all to emphasize a point. Right now, it is a buyer’s market. Period.

Now is the time that all the savvy real estate investors have been dreaming of – a time when people are scared to turn down offers in fear of not seeing another one, a time when sellers will pay all closing costs and offer zaney incentives to attract buyers. Now is the time when the buyers get THEIR pick and have an opportunity to actually CASHFLOW a property.

Three years ago, all the smart investors had already left the market, they had taken their winnings and tucked it away. They were waiting for a time like right now to pull that wad back out and throw it at something else. I was talking to an agent buddy of mine the other day and was told that 6 out of the last 8 buyers they closed were cash buyers. Now is the time to buy. Cash is king, but mortgage money is easy to get to also, as long as you can fully qualify. Another buddy of mine financed a second home, 20% down on a 30 year fixed at 6%. Not too shabby.

If you can buy right now, you should be shopping. Real estate is always a long term hold, and there will be tremendous upside to those purchasing property now.

On to the fun part.

Panama City Beach’s 10 Best Deals.

Regency Towers Unit 525 – 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1,456 square feet, priced at $237,500. That’s $163 per square foot! Everything seems to be in order with this condo, and sounds like a real steal. The agent is Diane McKay, and her number is 850-596-1378. She works with Coldwell Banker/Carroll Realty. If you don’t know about Regency Towers, they’ve been working very hard to give the whole place a new face. The place is looking real good.
Long Beach Towers Unit 1-806 – 3 bedroom, 3 bath, 1,800 square feet priced at $365,900. That is $203 a square foot, wow! This is a bank sale, but could be a real deal. Long Beach is a great complex with a few great pools. Each condo is designed to have maximum beach frontage. This complex is relatively new, built 10 years ago. Also, I can’t forget to mention that this is a lock-off – two rentable units in one! Definite cashflow opportunity. The agent is Patrick Finn with Finn Realty. His digits are 850-368-6700.
302 Carolyn Ave, in Woodlawn. This is a steal at $136,900. With 1,692 square feet, this comes up to $80 a foot! 3 bedroom 2 bath built in 1958. Everything seems to be in ok shape. The agent is Diane McKay (she got two on the list!), her number is 850-596-1378.
Nautilus Cove Unit#?? Not sure of which unit exactly, maybe all of them? This is a four bedroom 3 bath going for $154,900. These are new, just built last year and never been lived in. At 1,492 square feet, that comes up to $103 a foot. They have a fitness center, pool, walking paths, and a closed security gate. They all come with granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances and ok carpet. You can’t go wrong with the price. The agent is Ronald Lucarz with Pelican. His number is 850-582-5159.
Sterling Reef Condominiums Unit 1505. This is a 2 bedroom 2 bath 1,076 square foot priced at $249,000. That comes up to $231 a square foot. Not too shabby considering how nice these are. The west view from this building is unsurpassed as it is contiguous with over 1,700 feet of dedicated beach that will remain undeveloped. This is a steal. The agent is Karen Ward with Realjoy Properties, and her number is 850-424-3094.
1101 Sawgrass Court #201 in Wild Heron priced at $295,000. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,300 square feet. All I have to say is $226.75/square foot in Wild Heron on Lake Powell. You couldn’t touch one of these for more than twice this a few years ago. I have been in these condos, and they are super nice. The agent is Karen Smith with Beachy Beach Real Estate, her number is 850-527-5651.
121 Manistee Drive on the West End. 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 2,268 square feet priced at $159,900. That’s right, $70 bux a square foot. Built in 1984, this is a true country log cabin fit with a huge porch, beautiful exposed beams, a shed in the back and a good sized lot (wide at 75 feet). It needs a little work, but at $70 a foot, who cares? The agent is Gabriel Stephani with Beachy Beach Real Estate, and his number is 850-814-4640.
409 Liverpool Ave in Tapestry Park. This is a 43×125 foot lot in one of the coolest (I think THE coolest) neighborhoods in Panama City Beach. The architectural style and pedistrian-centered neighborhood layout makes this community a, well, real community. This lot is listed for $55,000. You heard me, $55K. That is half what they were going for a year ago. The agent is Craig Duran with Pelican, and his number is 850-527-0221.
Moondrifter Condo #805. Priced at $199,000, this is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath 1,050 square foot GULF FRONT condo. Dude, a Gulf Front Condo under $200k! Plus, this is priced nearly $80,000 less than the other two that are listed. The agent is Amanda Corbin with Prudential Shimmering Sands, and her number is 850-832-7447.
Last but not least, the least expensive home in the Glades is a 3 bedroom 2 bath 1,747 square foot home priced at $269,000. That comes up to $153/foot. This home was built in 1996 and features a two car garage. With a screened in pool and new paint inside and out, this home is advertised as “move-in ready.” The agent is Carrie Routt with Keller Williams, and her number is 850-867-5309.

Sorry guys, no pictures. This project was a little more exhausting than I wanted it to be, and I had to get it out.