Weekend Weather – Thanksgiving 2010

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What a weekend to enjoy the beach,  Bay County traditions, or, hey, create your own! You’ll have a chance to see the shore in many different lights, from gray and silver to blue and gold. If you are a photographer, or just an appreciator,  you will not want to miss what’s in store this long and relaxing weekend.

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Weekend Weather – Frost Alert

This week we had a chance to see the fierce beauty of the beaches during a storm. It will most likely have passed through by the time most weekenders arrive, though it’s been exciting to see the competitors cruising around the course all week here. This weather should be much nicer for the triathletes as they swim the Gulf, bike the county and run the east end of the beach this weekend. On Friday night, Clint Black will be performing under the stars at Pier Park, do bring a nice jacket because there will be a breeze. There’s even more to do and taste this weekend, and the weather will be fall perfect.  You might want a cover up on the sand in the mornings.

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Ick (as opposed to Ike)

Is anyone else suffering from sinus/allergy problems? My whole family has been sick for the last couple of days. Based on the fact that it happened after spending time outdoors, I think pollen may be the culprit.

Below is a graph from Pollen.com showing the recorded pollen levels for our area over the past 30 days.  The pollen levels are on a scale of 12. Low is 0-2.4, Low-Medium is 2.5-4.8, Medium is 4.9-7.2, High-Medium is 7.3-9.6, and High is 9.7-12.0. These levels take into account how much pollen the allergy sufferer is likely to be exposed to for that given period.

30 Day Pollen History

As you can clearly see, there has been an major increase in the levels, particularly in the last week.  Today’s level is 8.4, which is considered medium-high.  The predominent pollens are ragweed and grass.  So, if your feeling a bit stuffy, or just plain sick, you may want to stay indoors.

Hurricane Ike Entering Gulf – Effects for PCB?

Hurricane Ike, barely a Category 1 storm, is still working its way across Cuba.  Ike is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours.  The track guidance has shifted towards mid to southern Texas as it is believed that the steering patterns will cause the system to move on a more westerly track.  Once over the Gulf, Ike is expected to restrengthen to a Category 2 storm.

As of the 11 a.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) track was as follows:

Hurricane Ike 11am track

So, what are the expected ramifications for Panama City Beach?  The Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the National Weather Service Tallahassee this morning stated the following in part:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…

HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND IKE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER…WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

ALONG THE COAST…EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION…LARGE SWELLS FROM IKE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS…LARGE
SWELLS…AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO AN APPROACHING FULL
MOON…MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY.

THE LARGE SWELLS FROM IKE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GENERATE DANGEROUS
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIFE THREATENING FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE WATER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

The Marine Forcast for the coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin out 20 NM is:

IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE  SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME…WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  HOWEVER…SIGNIFICANT SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET…SOME SWELL.
PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET…SOME
SWELL. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. SHOWERS    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

THURSDAY NIGHT EAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET…MAINLY
SWELL. PROTECTED WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FEET…MAINLY SWELL. PROTECTED WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8
FEET…MAINLY SWELL. PROTECTED WATERS SMOOTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7
FEET…MAINLY SWELL. PROTECTED WATERS SMOOTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Based on this I would advise anyone wanting to go to the beach or take the boat out to do so pronto.  Besides, the water is pristine right now.  Thanks to Gustav most of the seaweed has been cleared.  The other day it was so clear along the shore you could see the crabs running.  Days like this don’t happen all that often.  So my advice is to get out today before things get churned up.